Dateline: April 29 2038
Ahmad wipes the sweat from his brow, having just installed another solar farm under the scorching Jakarta sun. As a welcome breeze begins to stir, he pauses only briefly; there’s no time to enjoy this success. His gaze shifts to a rival firm erecting two new wind turbines nearby. Already behind schedule, he hurries off to his next major appointment — a bid for an even larger solar project.
Economies of scale, technological advancements, and the proliferation of affordable renewable energy have driven down costs for solar, wind, and battery storage since the early 2000s, a trend that accelerated through the 2020s and 2030s. By the mid-2020s, investments in coal, gas, and nuclear energy had become financially questionable compared to renewables. By mid-2030, as the costs of renewables and battery storage continued to decline, fossil fuels rapidly became obsolete and economically untenable.
Earlier concerns about the variability of renewable energy and the challenges of meeting grid baseload demands proved to be unfounded. The affordability of renewables — especially solar — enabled the installation of excess generation capacity which, alongside low-cost modular battery storage, ensured power availability even during challenging conditions such as windless, cloudy and short winter days. During the remainder of the year when the sun does shine, this excess generation resulted in an abundance of electricity that, with no fuel input costs, has a marginal cost of production of nearly zero.
This abundant supply has driven energy prices to record lows. Companies that had built their reputations on energy efficiency found themselves sidelined as their customers were no longer willing to pay a premium for efficiency. Attempts by these industries to lobby against +100% renewable energy were overwhelmed by climate advocates and the evidence of burgeoning growth in new industries and economic opportunities. Technologies and processes once deemed too energy-intensive — such as desalination, vertical farming and complex recycling methods — are now at the forefront of a low-carbon industrial revolution.
Reflecting on these changes, Ahmad, whose company finalised the switch to electric construction vehicles last year, has seen first-hand a significant drop in his own installation costs. But regretfully he knows that competition in the market is so intense he will have to pass these savings on to his client to stand any chance of winning the tender. /First published in Mindbullets April 18 2024
Exponential tech kills carbon habits
No demand for fossil fuel industries, or their products
Dateline: August 27 2036
Industrial Age businesses, most of which depended on fossil fuels for their commercial success, have simply not survived the exponential technologies unleashed by the post-digital era. They’ve become economically obsolete.
In the early 2020s energy, transport and food were identified as the biggest emissions culprits, and blamed for 90% of our negative influence on the climate. But the writing was on the wall for the major industries supporting these sectors for 100 years.
In energy it was coal, gas and oil for power and heat, and supplying heavy industry such as steel making. Declining cost curves for solar, wind and storage, as well as decentralisation of power generation, made it impossible for the old business models to survive.
Transport was driven by petro products and combustion engines, but once battery breakthroughs made electric cars maintenance free and lasting five times longer, the market for gas burners just disappeared. That’s if anyone wants a private car — robotaxis do the job perfectly well in most cities these days. Even trucking has gone lightweight and electric, and long-distance freight and rail have turned to hydrogen — it’s cheaper as well as cleaner.
And what about food? Farming, especially with animals, has long been one of the biggest consumers of natural resources and contributors to greenhouse gasses. But no self-respecting human eats animals any more, and manufactured protein and microbial food isn’t only healthier, it tastes better too.
Which is why those old carbon-intensive industries have either reinvented themselves or simply faded away. Nobody needs them, or their products. /First published in Mindbullets August 26, 2021
• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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