JOHN DLUDLU: Unstable ANC means post-election certainty is likely to be short-lived

Today’s general election to elect the National Assembly and provincial legislatures has been dubbed the most important and historic. Historic because it marks the 30th anniversary of SA’s transition from apartheid to all-race democracy; important because of high expectations that the free-fall decline of the past 15 years will be arrested by the outcome.

Most polls have predicted a steep fall below the 50% mark for the ANC, which has governed SA and eight of the nine provinces  since 1994. The ANC is unpopular. And, yes, its share of votes will decline. But it is not unpopular enough to be dislodged in Wednesday’s election. It will still form the next government.

None of this suggests that Wednesday’s voting is unimportant as an exercise towards change. It is vitally important.

A few factors have worked in the ANC’s favour despite its disappointing performance in government. Most of these have nothing to do with its policies.

The opposition, which faced unenviable odds in the run-up to the election, has been disorganised. Among the many challenges faced by parties have been changes in electoral and party-funding laws.

Independent candidates, mostly from the three major parties in parliament (the ANC, DA and EFF), were allowed to stand for parliamentary elections. Only one province, the Northern Cape (an ANC stronghold), has no independents on the ballot.

The ANC’s campaign took months to get into top gear. But once it did, the outcome was far beyond expectations of the effort it expended.

First, the ANC benefited from its anti-Israel stance. Siding with Palestine is a long-standing ANC policy. But the outbreak of the conflict in Gaza gave it an opportunity to take this up a notch.

The ANC government lodged an application with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to declare Israel’s bombardment of Gaza an act of genocide. In and outside the court, the ANC has stepped up pressure to have Israel isolated by the international community.

Last week’s ruling by the ICJ, urging Israel to exercise restraint, boosted this ANC campaign. Some of the ANC’s disgruntled voters now openly talk about going back to vote for it because of this stance.

Another blow to Israel has been the recommendation that the International Criminal Court  issue arrest warrants for Hamas and Israeli leaders for their actions in fuelling the Gaza conflict. This week’s killing of 45 Gazans in a Rafah refugee camp, a subject of the UN Security Council’s emergency meeting, is likely to add pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

A few factors have worked in the ANC’s favour despite its disappointing performance in government. Most of these have nothing to do with its policies.

Though foreign policy is important in an election, it is unlikely to significantly sway voters’ choices.

Halfway through a campaign marred by own goals, the ANC received two fillips. First, when it became clear that Jacob Zuma, its former leader, is the founder of the MK party, the ANC took off the gloves and went straight for him.

Until a month ago, it was dithering about what to do about Zuma. It has since suspended his membership. Fearing violence, it delayed a disciplinary hearing against him. This may never happen. But having a clear enemy in Zuma made its campaign a bit more coherent. The “good story to tell” line is unbelievable. More believable is characterising its former leader as a rogue and fifth columnist.

And second, the ANC benefited from the ANC’s old grandees — such as Thabo Mbeki, Kgalema Motlanthe, David Mabuza, Mathews Phosa and Tokyo Sexwale — joining the party’s door-to-door campaign.

Most of them are critical of the ANC leadership’s failure to stop corruption and clean up the party. Joining the campaign means they have suspended their criticism, at least for now. Unlike today’s leaders, these former leaders have been direct in their attacks of Zuma and his party.

Come this weekend, South Africans will receive news of the ANC’s win when results are released. In theory, at least, this should be a source of relief as it will signal policy continuity and leadership stability, probably under Cyril Ramaphosa.

Unfortunately, this certainty is likely to be short-lived.

Unstable, divided

The ANC is inherently unstable and too divided to drive such an ambitious agenda of internal change and cleansing. An unstable ANC will be impotent in driving a government agenda to address the energy and freight logistics crises and, importantly, the crisis of lawlessness and disorder.

The start of Ramaphosa’s second term will also mark an important milestone. This could be a double-edged sword. If he chooses, it could strengthen his hand to be bolder and less diffident in driving change. Change or “renewal of the ANC” has been unconvincing. For example, the step-aside rule has been unevenly applied.

But it could also render him an immediate lame duck. After this week’s election, Ramaphosa will face pressure on two fronts: those wanting to succeed him without waiting for the end of his term; and second, the party elders have grown impatient with the implementation of the ANC’s renewal agenda — Ramaphosa’s signature project.

Intra-ANC wrangling paralyses governance and decision-making, and makes government a less than satisfactory partner.

Outside the ANC, he faces court battles, including over the implementation of National Health Insurance, which he signed into law two weeks before the election.

Beyond the election, however, ordinary South Africans will still have agency to change their lives for the better by holding their new government to account.

• Dludlu, a former editor of The Sowetan, is CEO of the Small Business Institute.