The ANC has plenty of coalition options, at least on paper. If its final tally drops just below 50%, it can strike a “chicken wings and airtime” deal with small transactional parties.
If it drops to 46% or 47%, it will need a larger partner like the IFP. Below 46%, it can call on the EFF, the DA or the MK party.
My anticipation over the past few months has been that we will have a minority government before any such coalition deal will be struck. The reason for an immediate minority government is that the clock will be ticking. The constitution is clear that a new president must be elected within 14 days of the certification of results.
A sustainable coalition, however, requires detailed agreement on policy positions, deals over who gets which jobs, a settlement of national-provincial tensions, ombud mechanisms to manage conflict and an informal inner cabinet to keep the deal on track. Activists and voters will feel betrayed by party leaders who do deals, moreover, and they will need to be brought round.
These tasks require endless elite negotiation and leaders with time to reach out to activists. This does not mean the ANC cannot strike a superficial coalition deal inside 14 days, but such a deal is likely to collapse within months or even weeks.
This makes it likely the election of the president will take place in the National Assembly without any coalition being in place. The presidential vote is designed to produce a winner even if there is no initial majority for a candidate.
The president, in such a situation, will most likely be Cyril Ramaphosa. His minority government will probably not be immediately exposed to votes of no confidence. Meanwhile, the Public Finance Management Act allows money to be brought forward to keep the government running, even if budget votes cannot be passed.
A decisive and sustainable outcome is unlikely, and any coalition that is formed will encounter challenges of sustainability.
This will create a negotiating window in which big party donors and ANC politicians involved in business will presumably harden their opposition to any deal with the EFF or MK. Financial markets are likely to enter a period of turbulence that will help concentrate minds on the advantages of a coalition of moderate parties. For many ANC politicians, of course, a deal with the DA is deeply unpalatable. For this reason, any “centrist” deal would have to include both the DA and the IFP and be packaged as a “government of national unity”.
Another pathway remains open. The ANC’s performance now seems likely to be significantly less favourable than anticipated. This complicates the negotiation of “club deals” in which coalition parties work together at both national and provincial levels. The Gauteng ANC needs the EFF more desperately than ever. The relationship between the ANC and IFP in KwaZulu-Natal is troubled, and the MK party has seized the initiative in that province.
A tally below 45% also reopens the question of Ramaphosa’s leadership. Lobbyists for an EFF coalition may initiate a putsch on behalf of Paul Mashatile or others. The option of bringing the MK party back into the ANC fold would also precipitate a change of leadership, with party chair Gwede Mantashe perhaps rising to the presidency to smooth the return of Jacob Zuma to the mother body.
Post-election coalition government will not involve a singular event. A decisive and sustainable outcome is unlikely, and any coalition that is formed will encounter challenges of sustainability.
Somewhere down the line, a resource-seeking coalition that includes the EFF, MK and ANC elements remains quite possible. For now, however, it remains possible that a centrist government of national unity will be negotiated in the next two or three months. Indeed, this remains the most likely of the many conceivable outcomes.
• Butler teaches public policy at the University of Cape Town.
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