The road ahead is littered with risk like potholes on an Eastern Cape road. The scale of this is reflected by jittery markets; in the lead-up to the elections I was phoned by hedge fund managers and bankers who wanted my “gut” take on the outcome of the election. I told them that I thought the ANC would get 45%-48% of the vote, and, like many, I was wrong.
I saw the projections of Wayne Sussman, Ipsos, Victory Research and others, and I just couldn’t believe it. They took plenty of abuse on social media (and some are characteristically vile in return), but it’s only right to acknowledge that they have done a great job.
The MK party has shocked the ANC. The party is reeling at the scale of the betrayal, and like in the moment after a death in the family or some other trauma, I hope the party takes a moment to breathe before deciding how to proceed. The risks we face are profound, and the ANC’s reaction is a moment in history as pivotal as the 1948 election, PW Botha’s 1985 “Rubicon” moment, the murder of Chris Hani and the recall of president Thabo Mbeki.
What the ANC needs to understand immediately is that it cannot entertain Jacob Zuma, whose thuggery was on full display with his naked threat to the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) on Saturday. MK is an egregious outfit with a deeply regressive outlook. In moving forward, no other party should join it in government, and it should be left to run a minority government in KwaZulu-Natal. It should be politically isolated by all parties who value the constitution as untouchable — our very own AfD or BNP.
‘Confidence and supply’
At the national level, the horse-trading around coalitions has begun. At a high level it can appear simple, but it’s important to note the complexity and risk in the design and negotiation of the future. A grand coalition of the IFP, ANC and DA (or perhaps a “confidence and supply model”, where parties agree to support the government in certain important votes) is the only outcome that saves us from chaos.
Chaos is any arrangement that lets either of the two fascist parties, the EFF and MK, anywhere near government. That all depends on the ANC, which should avoid this because not only would it sink SA, but it would also sink the ANC. It would mean the end of Cyril Ramaphosa — hardly a tragedy in itself until you look at the other options — the collapse of the currency and markets, capital and skills flight, ballooning cost of debt and a possible descent into financial chaos and fiscal calamity.
It is critical that the ANC takes the other road. If it does this, there is a pathway for a positive future. Having shed its ethno-nationalist and fascist elements, the ANC has a better chance to fulfil its national, nonracial, nonsexist approach to equality and fairness from the centre-left.
What the constitutional parties will find in the coming years is that the radical parties are nourished by a mixture of voter desperation and the appeal of individual leaders, specifically the legendarily charismatic Jacob Zuma and Julius Malema.
A functional ANC-DA-IFP coalition — in which the IFP plays a critical role of keeping the government connected to KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC delivers authenticity and a focus on nationhood, and the DA oversees governance and certain policies, perhaps by insisting on taking ministries such as trade, and environment, as well as parliamentary committee chairs — will soon have a positive impact on the quality of people’s lives, reducing the appeal of the radical parties.
More importantly, Zuma is 82 and as much as the following years will see a hurried attempt to develop his children as political heirs-apparent, it is obvious that none has anything approaching their father’s charm or wile. When Zuma dies or retires, so does MK.
Thrashing out how the DA and IFP will work with an ANC minority government, or even a coalition, will be hard and risky, especially for the DA.
That, and the declining appeal of the cultish EFF, means there are many voters who might be homeless in a future election. That is an opportunity all parties of the centre should be thinking about already, because a minority KwaZulu-Natal government run by MK is sure to disappoint its voters sooner rather than later.
Thrashing out how the DA and IFP will work with an ANC minority government, or even a coalition, will be hard and risky, especially for the DA. There is an established history of junior coalition partners not being forgiven by their voters — think about the Liberal Democrats in the UK or the MPC in Zimbabwe. The big bet is that even the DA’s most virulently anti-ANC voters would prefer a coalition government dominated by an improved version of the ANC, overseen by their people in blue, and with SA’s worst political charlatans sidelined.
All thought experiments on how the DA can approach this presume that there is alignment in the party about the way ahead. I don’t believe that this is the case yet, and there are those who are legitimately concerned that a proposed DA/ANC co-operation will save the ANC and destroy the DA. That discussion is ongoing, and the ANC will need to listen carefully to the DA when it says it needs to show its voters big wins not only in executive positions, but also in improving government performance.
There is no pathway to progress, prosperity and nationhood that involves the EFF or the MK. It is unthinkable. That means there is little choice but to choose a very difficult road. The DA, IFP and ANC need to work together.
For all President Ramaphosa’s slow progress on reforming the state and the ANC, he has left some gifts for us as we approach this. The Supreme Court of Appeal now has some formidable jurists on the bench. The new chief justice seems robust and implacable. The president’s appointments at the Reserve Bank mean that we have steady hands on the monetary tiller until at least 2029. This matters because it creates an institutional foundation for what will come.
Done right, it might just help us thrive. In its grief at what has happened, the ANC can take comfort in this: its historical courage and determination delivered a democracy that has finally tired of its descent into kleptocracy and incompetence. That democracy now offers it a chance of redemption. It should take it and turn its back — once and for all — on the malign forces that dragged it into the mire.
• Parker is Business Day editor-in-chief.
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