The Islamic Republic of Iran is on the verge of a historic presidential election on June 28 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May.
The election will reveal much about the direction the Iranian government will take in the next years. One of the most pressing questions is whether Iran will open up to the world or whether the schism between the populace and the government will be maintained, which means the country will remain in isolation. But the prospect of even a moderately progressive outcome has all but evaporated.
Candidates for the presidency go through a filtering process. It is up to the Guardian Council, a 12-member body of clerics and jurists that oversees elections and legislation, to approve the candidates. This vetting process is overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and severely constrains the scope for electoral participation.
On Sunday the Guardian Council approved six candidates to run for president, making sure not to approve any candidates calling for radical reform. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former Tehran mayor who maintains close ties to the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, remains the front-runner. Hardline conservative candidate Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, is also still in the running.
Medical doctor Masoud Pezeshkian is the only reformist candidate among the group of hardliners. A relatively new candidate, his chances are seen as very slim, and the only prominent reformist candidate who threw his hat in the ring, Eshaq Jahangiri, was disqualified.
The prospect of a female candidate being allowed to run for president still seems remote. The council has never accepted a female candidate to run for the presidency. Of the four women who threw their hats in the ring in 2024, none was accepted by the council.
But not all female candidates supported women’s rights. Radical MP Zohreh Elahian has endorsed the death penalty for supporters of the Woman, Life and Freedom campaign, a women’s rights movement that unites progressive men and women around the issue of women’s rights. The movement was formed in the direct aftermath of the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022.
The 22-year-old Amini, of Kurdish origin, was beaten to death by Iranian police while in custody after being arrested for not wearing the hijab in accordance with government standards. Eyewitnesses who were detained with her reported that she was severely beaten and died as a result of police brutality.
Her death sent shock waves through Iran and triggered protests in cities across the country, which highlighted the plight of women in Iran. Iranian women formed a revolutionary movement characterised by the slogan “Women, Life, Freedom!”. The protests focused on the lack of political and social freedoms and coincided with a renewed yearning for secular democracy in Iran.
But across Iran protests were violently suppressed as authorities vilified protesters and used physical, psychological and sexual violence to suppress peaceful dissent. Amnesty International reported that security forces shot into the crowd with live ammunition.
In response to the killing of Amini and the protests of 2022, the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran was established by the UN Human Rights Council. In its first report, issued in March, the body found that gender persecution in Iran intersected with discrimination on the basis of ethnicity and religion. The report called for justice, truth and reparations for the victims, for the halting of all executions and the immediate release of protesters. The demands are unlikely to be met.
Antigovernment sentiment in Iran remains strong. Many Iranians refuse to participate in elections, resisting legitimising the electoral system. Parliamentary elections earlier in 2024 saw a lower turnout than ever before. The upcoming presidential elections are bound to be unfree and unfair. After the Guardian Council’s vetting process last Sunday, Iranians should be ready for more of the same.
• Dr Swart is a visiting professor at Wits Law School specialising in human rights, international relations and international law. She writes in her personal capacity.
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