DUMA GQUBULE: State’s vision without a plan is just a dream

During his first state of the nation address in February 2018, President Cyril Ramaphosa said: “This year we will be initiating measures to set the country on a new path of growth, employment and transformation. We will do this by getting social partners in our country to collaborate in building a social compact on which we will create drivers of economic recovery.”

Four years later, during his 2022 state of the nation address, Ramaphosa said: “We have given ourselves 100 days to finalise a comprehensive social compact to grow our economy, create jobs and combat hunger.” 

Later that year the government presented a shambles of a 32-page document, Framework for a Social Compact in SA, for discussion at the National Economic Development & Labour Council (Nedlac) that had 28 pages of waffle and only four of

so-called commitments.

It read like the work of an intern and had no targets for GDP growth, jobs or anything else. After a meeting with former president Thabo Mbeki towards the end of 2022, I wrote on these pages: “The government has no clue how to get us out of this economic crisis. It could at least ask Mbeki to help develop a social compact.” 

Last week, the Thabo Mbeki Foundation hosted the launch of an initiative, together with the foundations of eight struggle stalwarts, to facilitate a national dialogue to develop a common vision for the country. SA has had numerous attempts to develop a social compact.

Nedlac, which was established in 1995 to facilitate discussions between social partners — government, business, labour and communities — has failed to develop a social compact. There were jobs summits in 1998 and 2018, and the Growth & Development Summit of 2003. In 2013 the government published a National Development Plan (NDP).

All of these initiatives have failed for the simple reason that the government was never interested in having an honest dialogue about the country’s future. It dictated the boundaries of what could be discussed and has refused for almost three decades at Nedlac to discuss its failed macroeconomic policy framework.

Since unemployment is a macroeconomic policy issue, all the summits had to spend hours in pointless talks about “low-hanging fruit” and job-creation projects.

The NDP had targets to achieve 5.4% annual GDP growth and create 11-million jobs by 2030. But nobody was responsible for achieving these targets. The NDP’s targets were subordinate to other macroeconomic policy goals. The Treasury only cared about debt. The Reserve Bank only cared about inflation. Since the two most important institutions in the economy are not responsible for achieving the NDP’s targets, the so-called plan does not exist. A vision without a plan is just a dream. 

I hope the national dialogue will succeed, but I am not holding my breath. The government of neoliberal unity — with the ANC and DA together having 62% of seats in parliament — has no interest in having a debate about macroeconomic policy. The DA framework for participating in the right-wing coalition was a cut and paste with no additions from the Treasury’s 2024 Budget Review.

Economic emergency

The same applies to the triumphalists in the business sector and financial markets who got what they wanted and have no appetite for change. It was disappointing to read an article in the Sunday Times in which Dinga Sikwebu, a former trade union leader, lectured South Africans in a patronising tone and provided a long list of what they should not discuss at the national dialogue. Some people never learn. 

SA needs an economic state of emergency to achieve a decisive rupture from its painful past. But the elites in the government and business do not want to have a genuine engagement on the economic crisis. If there is no clear statement from the government that nothing is off the table and it is prepared to discuss macroeconomic policy, the national dialogue will be a waste of time. 

• Gqubule is research associate at the Social Policy Initiative. He writes in his personal capacity.