The ANC’s analysis after its recent meetings — of why the majority of eligible voters cancelled the party during the 2024 elections — was correct. But without a plan to reverse the trend it is likely to suffer further electoral losses over the next five years as the economic crisis intensifies after 16 years of declining average living standards and soaring unemployment.
Between the 2009 and 2024 national elections the ANC suffered a 25.7 percentage point decline in support, to 40.2% from 65.9%, as many voters stayed at home or voted for its two offshoots, the MK party and EFF. In 2024 about 25.1-million (61%) of 41.4-million eligible voters stayed at home on election day. The ANC received support from only 15.7% of eligible voters.
Between the two elections the number of people who voted for the ANC collapsed by 5.2-million. If the 2024 election had the same 77.3% voter turnout as the 2009 election, there would have been an additional 5.2-million voters, many of whom are probably ANC supporters who decided to stay at home rather than vote for any of the opposition parties.
The ANC’s electoral losses have coincided with a collapse of the average annual GDP growth rate to 1.2% over the past 15 years. From the fourth quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2024 the labour force soared by 8.3-million people, but the economy only created 1.9-million jobs. And only 1.2-million were in the formal sector, according to Stats SA. The number of unemployed people thus increased by 6.4-million to 12.4-million. The unemployment rates were 42.6% for people of all races, 46% for Africans, 50.4% for African women, 70.6% for youth and 54.2% in the Northern Cape.
After its recent national executive committee and lekgotla meetings, the ANC said there were three reasons for its electoral disaster: the economy, governance and the state of the party. During a media briefing after the meetings, ANC political education head David Makhura said: “This country will burn down if we don’t resolve the issue of the economy.” But in seven hours of ANC briefings there was no explanation for where the higher GDP growth rate and jobs will come from.
Neoliberal unity
The electorate punished the ANC, yet it decided to enter into a coalition with the DA that will result in the continuation of the failed macroeconomic policies that caused the collapse in voter support. During the first two quarters of 2024 the number of unemployed people increased by 718, 000 — higher than my forecast for the whole year — and the situation will only worsen. The ANC clearly does not to want to solve the unemployment crisis or stay in power.
The new government of neoliberal unity feels exactly the same as the ANC government before the election; nothing has changed. In a presentation to parliament’s standing committee on finance last week, the Treasury dished out the same recipe of austerity and structural reforms. Its own thumb-suck calculations showed that the reforms will have a trivial effect on the economy.
DA ministers will soon confront the reality that budget cuts of R13.3bn in five relatively small ministries — public works (R5bn), agriculture (R4.5bn), environment & forestry (R2.6bn), communication (R727m) and home affairs (R573m) — will make it difficult to deliver anything. And in the 2025 budget the Treasury will tighten the screws of macroeconomic policy further and introduce a primary budget surplus target of 2% of GDP and an inflation target of 4.5%.
It should be obvious after a decade that austerity and structural reforms are technically incapable of increasing the GDP growth rate. As the economic crisis worsens and the number of unemployed people continues to increase, the DA will begin to wonder why it is in a coalition with the ANC.
• Gqubule is research associate at the Social Policy Initiative. He writes in his personal capacity.
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