What does the first 100 days of the ANC-led government of national unity (GNU) say about our country’s political future?
The roots of marking the first 100 days as a milestone for any new administration can be traced to US president Franklin D Roosevelt’s first tenure, which began in 1932 amid the Great Depression. During the first three months of his presidency the US Congress passed 76 pieces of legislation, an unsurpassed figure.
Senior Democratic Party strategist David Axelrod has described the milestone as the “journalistic equivalent of a Hallmark holiday” — attracting a lot of fanfare but having little real significance.
Yet, President Cyril Ramaphosa should be pleased with developments thus far, says University of Cape Town academic and Ramaphosa biographer Anthony Butler. In pulling together the GNU he “has played a political blinder” that has caused the simplification of internal management of the ANC given the departure from its ranks of several corruption-tainted figures, and has provided a “fresh chance to shape policy somewhat freed from vested interests in the ANC’s tripartite alliance”.
The May elections may have been a strategic setback for the ANC, but the ANC-led GNU displayed the extent to which the venerable party remains the fulcrum for all events in SA. Since May 29 we have seen the election of an ANC president and speaker on June 14, the announcement of the ANC-led GNU cabinet on June 30, and the formation of governments of provincial unity including the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.
Breathtaking speed
Within weeks all GNU parties had signed up to a statement of intent, which set out its foundational principles and a minimum programme. Based largely on the ANC’s election manifesto priorities, it is the basis of the five-year medium-term development plan of this administration, elaborated on by Ramaphosa in his opening of parliament address on July 18.
Observers, especially those hailing from European countries where it often takes months if not years for coalition governments to be formed, have been astounded at the breathtaking speed the seventh administration has set.
Much of this has been due to the deep commitment most of the GNU parties have to address the core challenges facing SA — poverty, unemployment and inequality. Many programmes and trends that can be seen in bold relief now were germinating in the pre-election era.
Elna Moolman, head of SA macroeconomic research at Standard Bank, argues that we are now experiencing the long-foreseen rise in consumer, and concomitant retail business, confidence. Much of this is due to the decline in inflation, with factors such as lower fuel prices and wage stability playing a big role. This especially “stems from the resilience, and strengthening, of the rand exchange rate”.
Rand strengthened
As columnist Peter Attard Montalto recently noted, the Treasury has slowly but surely shifted SA into a primary surplus and is taking a more active role in how it manages bond issuance, with the result that there has been a “lower, flatter yield curve this year”.
The rand has strengthened 5.8% against the dollar in the first 100 days, with local-currency bonds surging to returns of 17.8% — outpacing all peers in the Bloomberg EM index of sovereign debt.
Standard Chartered Bank research head Razia Khan has argued that “the improvements we’re seeing now are largely the result of reforms introduced during Ramaphosa’s previous administration”. She points out: “It’s too early to say whether the GNU itself has had any real impact, but the outlook for SA has certainly improved thanks to those earlier efforts.”
Despite the rancour over the National Health Insurance Act and Basic Education Laws Amendment Act, Butler suggests “it is not impossible at all that the GNU will bring in pragmatic compromises that improve overall outcomes in both cases, and perhaps — if the coalition survives — in many others besides”.
Such cautious optimism built on past successes is what SA needs.
• Abba Omar is director of operations at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.