Former president Jacob Zuma’s MK party and the EFF may be outside the government of national unity (GNU) tent for now, but this could change before 2029.
The GNU’s first 100 days has been a boon for SA, with a surge in business confidence, renewed interest in the country from investors and cautious optimism among voters, a Social Research Foundation (SRF) study shows.
The GNU, a 10 party tie-up anchored by the ANC and DA, was necessary due to the ANC’s dramatic 17 percentage point decline in support in the May 29 elections. The historic agreement was driven by President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC secretariat, led by Fikile Mbalula, through a gruelling two weeks after the elections, with 18 meetings held with various political parties.
Ramaphosa described it as the country’s “second miracle” on the global stage and hailed the “collaborative spirit” among all political parties in the GNU at an event with the country’s 140 top CEOs on Tuesday. But the GNU is not without its contradictions, and the SRF research provides a stark warning of the consequences of practical and strategic missteps by any of the existing partners.
Director Frans Cronje told Business Day there is evidence in the data that the risk of slipping into populism in SA lingers. He warned that it must not degenerate into an “elite event” that focuses on the middle and upper classes while neglecting the urban and rural poor.
The numbers from the study bear this out: despite MK being a haven for state capture and corruption accused, led by the state capture kingpin, it resonates among many of those polled. Its anti-constitution, patriarchal, autocratic brand of politics attracted more than 2.2-million votes in the election, and in the study its posture (though not its compromised people) was supported by more than 50% of those polled, rising to 62% among black voters.
The MK and the EFF are off-putting to 46% of all those polled — 38% of blacks, 64% of coloureds, 72% of Indians and 85% of whites. Twenty-five percent of those polled, across the race groups, would support parties such as MK and the EFF if they did not include “corrupt or compromised” people.
Should the GNU degenerate into an “elite event” it would also attract further opposition from within the ANC. The party’s Gauteng region is the only structure bucking against it, but it could expand in the years to come, particularly after Ramaphosa’s ANC presidency ends in 2027.
The ANC in Gauteng has been at loggerheads with the DA since the election, first over the formation of a provincial government and now over a stability pact to govern metros. Its strategy appears to be to frustrate the GNU and, eventually, ensure the DA backs out. This would make room for the EFF and MK.
Deputy president and former Gauteng premier Paul Mashatile, who still wields considerable influence in the province, alluded to this in an interview with the SABC’s Mzwandile Mbeje last month. “I do hope there’s no-one in the GNU who thinks they are being swallowed, because if they think so they will get scared and they may want to jump, but there are other people who are waiting at the door.”
Julius Malema’s EFF was adamant that it will not join a government that includes the DA and FF+, so a DA departure could open the door for the EFF to enter the pact. MK has dubbed Ramaphosa its enemy and is unlikely to join during his presidency, but Mashatile is among the front-runners to replace him in 2027.
There is mounting evidence that the GNU in its current form could end up a proxy battleground before the next ANC conference. Speaking to journalists last month, Ramaphosa said any party that still wanted to join the GNU should come forward and “we will listen to them and see the extent to which they are able to subscribe to what we have decided should bind us together, which is the principles set out in the statement of intent”.
His remarks imply opposition to the EFF and MK joining — the statement of intent is anchored on respect for the constitution and includes a provision that states any new entrants to the GNU would have to be agreed to by all parties that have already signed up.
The DA exiting would therefore be crucial for those wanting to bring in MK and the EFF. The logic of the Gauteng ANC’s attitude towards the GNU is starting to become more clear.
• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large.
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