In 2014, when the results of the general elections were announced, ANC stalwart Jeff Radebe opted to attend a wedding celebration instead of the results ceremony. When asked why he wasn’t celebrating, he said: “Celebrate a decline?”
This was the second time the ANC’s electoral fortunes had fallen after former president Thabo Mbeki’s historic two-thirds majority in 2004.
Then, for the first time in its 30-year governance of post-apartheid SA, the ANC lost its dominance on May 29 this year. It dipped a touch above 40% of all votes cast in a general election in which more than two-thirds of eligible voters stayed at home.
The ANC’s seemingly reluctant president, Cyril Ramaphosa, cobbled together a 10-party coalition he called a government of national unity (GNU) after the disastrous performance. Conspicuous by their absence were Julius Malema’s EFF and Jacob Zuma’s newly formed MK party.
Together with his ANC, Ramaphosa claims this is what the voters — in other words the minority who bothered to cast their votes on May 29 — wanted.
But the country will never know what the majority of South Africans really wanted or needed. There is no credible research explaining why so many people in a developing country after such a traumatic past chose not to cast their votes on the day.
What is immediately clear, though, is what the funders of the two major parties desired, a new phenomenon in SA’s body politic. Most, according to anecdotal evidence, wanted a coalition of the ANC (read Ramaphosa) and the rational wing of the DA. Add to that, perhaps, the IFP.
Stung by criticism from within the ANC national executive committee that he has gone to bed with a “white party”, Ramaphosa decided to “disinvite” EFF and MK from the coalition. This means he had bought into the narrative that the pair, now styling themselves as the progressive caucus with the ATM party, would constitute a doomsday coalition.
It is clear that MK was badly disorganised and not ready for negotiations. The story that is yet to be told is how it came to exclude a power-ready Malema, other than on instruction from the funders.
The GNU, now over 100 days old, has been sold as a great success. The vibes, cited as proof points of this success, include the stock market performance, the rand’s value and some market research. Perhaps it is true. After all, there have been no resignations or walkouts.
Then again, Nelson Mandela’s GNU took two years to show signs of fissure when the National Party walked out. So, this fate may yet befall Ramaphosa’s GNU, and early signs of strain and fragility are beginning to show.
On the eve of the elections, Ramaphosa signed the National Health Insurance (NHI) bill into law. This is opposed by the DA, his senior partner in the GNU. With the ANC relying for votes recipients of social grants and members of Cosatu’s public sector unions, who enjoy generous medical insurance benefits, this gimmick failed to gain him votes. In fact, it might have shaved off some of the ANC’s previous 57% poll.
After the poll Ramaphosa signed into law the Basic Education Laws Amendment bill. His basic education minister and DA deployee, Siviwe Gwarube, boycotted the signing ceremony. He climbed down, suspending two clauses of the law from implementation.
The GNU has not translated into stability of the mission-critical sphere of local government. Unlike national government, local government is by far the most dangerous falling knife faced by households and firms in SA. This makes the so-called positive vibes of the GNU ring hollow to suffering working-class people.
Even though there is no empirical evidence that the two-thirds of voting-age South Africans who stayed away from elections approve of the GNU, something is clear. The ANC has contrived to cling to power for at least a few more years.
For its part, the DA, which has shown uncharacteristic patience, has by far the best shot at power without winning on the ballot by hanging out with the ANC.
Radebe’s observations came to mind this past week. Having been outwitted by its junior partner, the ANC hastily organised an “event” to mark 100 days of the GNU at Luthuli House. This came amid a brewing feud between the ANC head office and Gauteng ANC provincial chair Panyaza Lesufi.
The dispute’s cause is as clear as mud. Lesufi, Gauteng’s premier by a thread, has excluded the DA from the provincial government even though it helped vote him into power. The national ANC, which is chronically out of touch with the mood on the ground and what happened on May 29, is trying without success to get Lesufi to toe the line.
The mistake Luthuli House is making is to characterise him as a rogue on a frolic of his own when he is in fact a poster boy of the “1912” faction of the ANC, which believes the current dominant faction has “sold out”.
Faced with the threat of a backlash from the ANC’s alliance partners, especially the SACP, Ramaphosa reframed this week’s 100-day “event” as a moment for reflection, not a celebration.
The communist elements stayed away from the celebrations, but did not withdraw their deployees from the cabinet (a constant threat). The GNU survives, for now.
• Dludlu, a former editor of The Sowetan, is CEO of the Small Business Institute.
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