The realignment after the 2024 election is taking shape — bringing with it several potential political risks. Elections always result in political shifts as parties settle into their new roles in government or the opposition benches. Political parties themselves wrestle with the outcome and attempt to reorganise internally in preparation for the term ahead.
Given the historic outcome of the 2024 election, in which the ANC’s support slipped by 17 percentage points, prompting the formation of the government of national unity (GNU), the realignment this time is significant. There are many dimensions to it; one is the potentially ground-shifting developments in the relationship between the ANC and its leftist allies, Cosatu and the SA Communist Party (SACP).
In the immediate aftermath of the election the ANC met its alliance partners in Cosatu and the SACP, highlighting the problem it faced in setting up a government and laying out the options for doing so. Cosatu was against any form of working relationship with former president Jacob Zuma’s MK party, and the SACP’s politburo expressed similar discomfort with a Zuma tie-up.
Cosatu was concerned about the inclusion of the DA in the government of national unity (GNU) and noted that concern, but resolved to fight issues at a policy level. Insiders say the federation recognised the stark reality the ANC faced after its bloody nose at the ballot box. That was then. Now, Cosatu’s deputy general secretary, Solly Phetoe, has publicly indicated that Cosatu rejects the GNU in its current form.
Confrontational
The SACP was the first to came out publicly against the GNU through its general secretary, Solly Mapaila, who incidentally steered the party through its far-reaching resolution at its most recent elective conference to contest elections on its own in 2026 should a “reconfigured alliance” fail to materialise by then. Mapaila has been brutal in his critique of the GNU inclusive of the DA, this week saying it was all part of a plan between the two parties dating back to March.
Also this week, Cosatu’s largest union, the National Education, Health & Allied Workers’ Union (Nehawu), and police union Popcru have come out against the governing pact. Nehawu is developing a position paper on the GNU, conceding that it marked an “unfavourable shift against the working class”. Its official position will be made clear after its central executive committee meeting in December, but it has already vowed to adopt a “confrontational and contradictory” stance against the GNU. Popcru has described the GNU as a “disaster for black people”.
An SACP document to be discussed at a potential special congress in December highlights the deepening “neoliberal” slant of the ANC. “We need to acknowledge that working-class power and influence has been declining for some time, and that we are likely to face even more difficulties in asserting even the level of influence we have managed up to now in circumstances in which our alliance partner depends for its position in government on its coalition with parties to its right strongly committed to neoliberalism,” the document reads.
“To put it bluntly, without building more power on the ground, left alliance partners are likely to have less influence on government economic policy than does the DA.”
Join MK
The SACP has long dragged Cosatu’s public sector unions along by the nose in its many political intrigues within the ANC-led alliance. Senior union bosses have also raised concern about the fact that dozens of their members, particularly in stronghold provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Gauteng, are leaving the ANC to join Zuma’s MK.
A combination of factors is driving the alliance formation’s opposition to the GNU. One is political posts — the alliance was barely represented in the cabinet this time around due to the need to accommodate opposition parties. Another is the loud pushback against the GNU by powerful ANC leaders who are unhappy with the arrangement, and yet another is the ANC succession battle playing out within alliance formations.
A final factor is that the SACP is testing the waters for its possible entry into electoral politics. It will meet in December to decide whether it will contest wall-to-wall municipalities on its own ticket in 2026 or stick to its original plan and only contest certain strategic councils. The SACP has long threatened to go it alone instead of backing the ANC. It has not taken the leap, but the GNU could be the catalyst that pushes it to do so.
Either way, the acrimony and tension in the alliance in the aftermath of the election is likely to further weaken the ANC and could in the end strengthen the hand of its electoral opponents.
• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large.
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