For a while now analysts have been warning that we are on the precipice of a new world order, characterised by increasing geopolitical tensions, renewed trade wars and protectionism leading to inflation globally, and a consolidation of a right-wing and illiberal agenda.
In the era of the second Trump presidency the Earth is going to be an even more dangerous place for every living species as measures to address climate change are rolled back, and an even more hazardous place for women as misogyny and sexual attacks rise and women’s rights are curtailed.
Antimigrant violence is rising not just in Europe and North America but also in seemingly progressive societies such as our own. Elon Musk and his acolytes will bring to state administration in the US the same lack of care for workers’ conditions and rights they have displayed in their various business models.
In trying to understand what accounts for the Republican Party’s success in the US the devil is in the details, which are still being pored over. There is consensus, though, that incumbents worldwide were facing tough election odds — ask the ANC about that. Even India’s strongman, Narendra Modi, saw an erosion in support for the coalition he leads in elections earlier in the year.
Since US Democratic Party strategist James Carville famously quipped in 1992 that “It’s the economy, stupid”, analysts have looked at economic trends to explain electoral trends. However, Martin Sandbu of the Financial Times points out that in the US “inflation peaked in the summer of 2022 and is mostly gone by now … and real disposable personal income per capita bottomed out in the same month as inflation peaked and has been rising strongly ever since”.
Sandbu suggests the actual decisive factors were expectations of job losses, which rose significantly for the lowest-paid in the second half of Joe Biden’s presidential term, and the unaffordability of house prices due to high interest rates.
Noneconomic factors accounting for the Democrats’ loss include governance and identity issues. For example, Jerusalem Demsas of The Atlantic complained that “Democrats are clearly responsible for the poor governance in blue cities and states” and stated that the election results are a repudiation of Democratic governance and the cost of living.
In 2021 political scientists Alexander Furnas and Timothy LaPira of Data for Progress found that political elites’ views are often well to the left of the average voter on cultural issues. More recent surveys show differences on concrete policy issues too: about 30% of blacks and Hispanics support the statement “Legal immigration to the US should be made easier” while more than 80% of progressive whites support it.
Similarly, “size of police force and scope of its work should be cut” is supported by almost 80% of progressive whites, with just 40% of blacks and 20% of Hispanics supporting it. As for issues around gender identity, the Republicans’ attack on political correctness was embodied in the pre-election advert that said: “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you”.
Surveys have shown that between 1948 and 2012 Democrats were seen by US voters as the party that stood up for the working class and the poor. Since 2016 the party has come to be seen primarily as one of minority advocacy.
The US election outcome was not a total rout against women’s rights; of the 10 states that held referendums on abortion policies, seven upheld them. In Florida, where the threshold for change is 60%, 57% came out in support of abortion rights.
The lesson for progressives across the world is clear — listen to the voters and understand their plight, while explaining the policies that are being advocated. We need to overcome the distance between the elite and grassroots, going back to our social activism roots.
This applies at the global level as we struggle to strengthen multilateralism and the peaceful resolution of conflicts, protect workers, promote and entrench women’s rights, and protect the Earth from further degradation.
• Abba Omar is director of operations at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.
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