Studies show SA is sitting on a powder keg that could explode suddenly, sending the country spiralling down a path of riots, looting and lawlessness last seen in July 2021. Yet there are factors that could help avoid that if strong, bold leadership is exercised.
The Inclusive Society Institute released its SA social cohesion index last week, which is meant to measure the wellbeing of our society. Working off interviews carried out by Ipsos, it found that within a frame of nine dimensions, at 51.7 our overall level of social cohesion is almost identical to that of Germany in 2023.
You would think that would be good news, but when presenting to the National Planning Commission’s round-table on social cohesion, researchers from Germany’s Constructor University warned their experience in dozens of other countries, including from the Global South, is that when a society slips below the 50 mark societal problems begin emerging.
Steady decline
The research shows there had been a steady national decline over the past three years. As for our provinces, the lowest scores were found in KwaZulu-Natal (46.1), the Free State (49.4) and Gauteng (50.5).
Among the nine dimensions SA scored highest in identifying as South Africans, followed by solidarity and helpfulness of social networks.
Stats SA’s infrastructure quality index, which looks at service delivery for sanitation, water, refuse disposal and electricity, found that the lowest service delivery scores were located in Limpopo and municipalities in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
The Human Science Research Council’s service delivery index, which uses seven key elements — social grants, electricity, water & sanitation, refuse removal, healthcare access, HIV/Aids treatment and affordable housing — has found that there has been a steady decline from 57 in 2013 to 50 in 2023.
The categories that are below the national average are rural areas generally, the provinces of KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga and Limpopo, the poor and people with no formal schooling or primary education.
The spectre of the July 2021 uprisings has been stalking the country, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal. But despite the negative figures there are hopeful signs. For example, the Phoenix Ubuntu Forum, which involves especially young residents from the predominantly Indian township of Phoenix and neighbouring African townships of KwaMashu, Inanda and Amaoti, have been running successful youth development, food production and sports programmes.
Triple challenges
However, the various pieces of research indicate that far more will need to be done to lift the level of social cohesion in SA. At the most fundamental level the triple challenges of poverty, unemployment and inequality have to be the concern of every South African who can contribute, in any way.
The burden has been borne largely by the government, which has run internationally recognised social benefit programmes. Jasmina Papa of the International Labour Organisation, also addressing the National Planning Commission, said that 52.4% of the world’s population was covered by at least one social protection benefit while 3.8-billion people are excluded. SA now invests 10.4% of its GDP in social protection and the financing gap is 3.8% of GDP — a far lower gap than most other countries.
An initiative to host a national dialogue to address the burning issues of the day has been meandering along with various degrees of support from the leading political family foundations and civil society, and political point scoring by political parties. Given that the politicians cannot get their act together, it becomes the responsibility of civil society, business and labour to wear the mantle of leadership. These sectors feel the heat of a poor-performing economy, starving families and divisions within communities and workplace most directly.
Perhaps the Ubuntu Forum and Archbishop Thabo Makgoba’s Courageous Conversations and other such initiatives need to join the dots, becoming a formidable force and platform for the national dialogue. Such a platform can then dictate to the GNU what is needed to lift society, improve service delivery and achieve high levels of social cohesion, avoiding the nightmarish dystopian scenario we could easily end up in.
• Abba Omar is director of operations at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.
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