Hubris, the excessive self-confidence that attaches itself to almost all politicians, enjoys a charmed life in SA.
Just last month we were told unemployment in the third quarter of the year (July, August, September) had fallen by almost 1.4 percentage points from the second quarter, from 33.5% to 32.1%.
Cue knowing looks and harrumphs of satisfaction and high-fives from various corners of the governing coalition, the government of national unity (GNU). It’s the sort of thing you’d expect, you see. New confidence, stability, you see. Stronger rand post-election, bond yields doing whatever.
Well, it was a month ago and our friend hubris just did what it always does to the self-satisfied — figures hot off the press tell us this week that in the exact same period the economy — our GDP — shrank by a stiff 0.3%. So employment increases while the economy is shrinking?
I don’t think so. Statistics are there to get it wrong but so, probably, was everyone brushing off the GDP slump as an aberration. The fact is that our economic cycle, such as it is, is probably swinging up and we will probably squeeze out a huge 1% growth number for next year.
And if we do it’ll be because for the umpteenth time South Africans get out and shop more. Former trade, industry & competition minister Ebrahim Patel used to despair of consumer booms and promised to supplant them with industrial booms, a far more progressive kind of boom. But in 20 years of trying he never came close.
The economy is here to make a fool of anyone who tries to control it, and Patel’s successor, Parks Tau, will find that out in time. Pretty much all you can do here is allow capital to go where it wants and hope it does some good. It often does, so it’s probably best to get out of the way as a matter of course. The more you try to make “transformation” a goal of industrial policy the less industry will transform and the faster it will shrink.
Fast, transformative growth needs leadership, and no matter how important President Cyril Ramaphosa might be to us constitutionally, what with Jacob Zuma’s new model army breathing down our neck, he is an apprehensive and hesitant leader.
His treatment of his justice minister is illustrative. Thembi Simelane, a former ANC mayor of Polokwane in Limpopo (Ramaphosa’s home province) has been shown to have benefited directly from a huge fraud to the tune of almost R600,000. She was “loaned” the amount by a financial adviser now on trial for his role in the looting of VBS Mutual Bank. She also clearly lives beyond her means.
Ramaphosa sat on clear evidence of her inexplicable enrichment from VBS Mutual Bank for 84 days without moving a muscle, all the while pleading for time to consider. On Tuesday, he announced a surprise cabinet reshuffle and moved her from justice to housing.
So she didn’t do anything wrong then? Or enough wrong to get her moved from justice but not enough to kick her out of the government? Someone needs to have a word with him. He is out of touch and clearly has little regard for the public, a trait he made clear every time he locked us down during Covid-19.
I know why Ramaphosa does this. His eye isn’t on the economy so much, and nor is it on the 2026 local elections. But the 2027 ANC election he wants either to win for a third term as party leader or to get his own candidate in. To do that he needs provincial supporters, and somewhere in that quest lies the answer to his failure to fire Simelane’s sorry ass.
She will have to go eventually — even Ramaphosa supporters in the party leadership know that — but as long as she stays all of Ramaphosa’s weasel words about renewal and his fight against corruption will rot in the summer heat. In the US, President Joe Biden just pardoned his son. In SA, Cyril just pardoned a bank robber friend. Both stink.
Hypocrisy is a first cousin to hubris, so we should not be surprised. For example, watching the scramble in the state to disavow the notion that we could possibly be associated in any way with an attempt to start a Brics currency has also been entertaining.
Trump posted on social media on Sunday that: “The idea that the Brics countries are trying to move away from the dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new Brics currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar, or they will face 100% tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy... There is no chance that the Brics will replace the US dollar in international trade, and any country that tries should wave goodbye to America.”
Whaaaat?, cried almost every SA official who mattered. We know nothing of this! But around the 2023 Brics summit in Johannesburg there was fevered and endless conjecture in public about the formation of a Brics currency. I don’t remember a single official standing up and saying it was never going to happen. Certainly Ramaphosa never said anything to dispel the fancy stories.
That summit ended with a muted declaration that “we stress the importance of encouraging the use of local currencies in international trade and financial transactions between Brics as well as their trading partners”, and while that may not be a new currency it does mean the dedollarisation of Brics trade, and to Trump that’s the same thing as dumping the dollar.
Ramaphosa will try to flatter Trump, and get him to play golf at Leopard’s Creek during the G20 summit in Johannesburg next year. Johann Rupert is an intermediary and so is Ramaphosa’s brother-in-law, mining magnate Patrice Motsepe. Maybe he’ll even succeed to an extent.
But Trump and his people already know our president is, um, flexible on some issues. Bank robbery is a new one to me, but I’m going to print out and keep a tweet on Wednesday from banker Mark Barnes after the “reshuffle”: “It’s easier to shuffle your cards,” he said, “than to play them and show your hand.”
We know why Ramaphosa never shows his hand — he’s got nothing.
• Bruce is a former editor of Business Day and the Financial Mail.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.