MARIANNE MERTEN: Kerfuffles galore ahead as hectic 2024 hurtles to a close

As 2024 ends with a cabinet reshuffle, 2025 might start with another — if the political noise is to be believed.

But removing DA basic education minister Siviwe Gwarube over perceptions that she is defying the president over the Basic Education Laws Amendment (Bela) Act will further impair a cabinet that is already compromised by the retention of the VBS Mutual Bank scandal-tainted Thembi Simelane, the former justice minister now shifted to housing. 

Removing Gwarube would please some ANC elements ahead of the party's planned national general council — a midterm policy and leadership review that traditionally presages likely contests at the next ANC national elective conference — as did retaining Simelane.

But DA leader John Steenhuisen has said removing Gwarube would “signal an end” to the government of national unity (GNU) because the minister was simply doing her job to avert a strike after the Solidarity union declared a dispute over the Bela Act at the National Economic Development and Labour Council. 

It is a calculated red line: the GNU is viewed positively in financial, business and international circles, and has boosted investor confidence in SA. But it has also exposed the contradictions inherent in the GNU, amid much political noise. The volume of that noise is set to increase in 2025 ahead of the pencilled-in ANC national general council, which will provide a platform for a verdict to be passed on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s time at the helm of party (and the state) and preview the ANC 2027 national leadership contest. 

For now, Friday is deadline day for GNU clearing house talks to resolve tensions over the Bela Act. This process should have happened before the president put his signature to the law and now the question of whether the two clauses that are in contention will be suspended can only be answered when Ramaphosa proclaims the act’s commencement date.

That decision is up to him and no-one else. It should be noted that it took Ramaphosa eight months between signing the Employment Equity Amendment Act in early April 2024 to proclaim its January 1 2025 starting date in late November 2024. 

Speaking of lengthy delays, seven years have passed since November 11 2017, when McKinsey & Co London-based senior partner David Fine told MPs in a statement to parliament’s Eskom state capture inquiry that “McKinsey’s partners have agreed that the money paid by Eskom to us should be returned to SA. We avail ourselves to have any discussions with the appropriate authority, inclusive of Eskom and the National Treasury, to find the appropriate mechanism to effect this commitment”. 

Last week a US court finalised proceedings under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act that mean McKinsey SA will also pay R1.1bn into the National Prosecuting Authority’s criminal assets recovery account.

Meanwhile, at the Union Buildings a long to-do list remains as 2024 runs down. Ramaphosa must still proclaim starting dates for structural reform laws he signed into law, such as the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act that overhauls the electricity sector, and the SA Water Resources Infrastructure Agency Act, which improves water management.

Outstanding are the regulations the Treasury said in August were needed for the implementation of the Public Procurement Act to address Zondo state capture commission recommendations. The National Health Insurance Act also remains in limbo without a starting date since being signed into law just before the May 2024 elections. 

That’s just for starters. Still awaiting the presidential signature, never mind starting dates, are at least 14 laws, including the Expropriation Bill parliament passed just before the May elections. Maybe Ramaphosa can clear his legislative in-tray over the festive season. 

Either way, hope for a quiet start to 2025 is misplaced. After the traditional ANC January 8 statement, cabinet lekgotla and more, a superheated two weeks will unfold from the February 6 state of the nation address to the national budget on February 19, as the traditional first Thursday-last Wednesday arrangement is jettisoned. 

Then it’s all eyes on the municipal election, which must be held between August 1 2026 and February 1 2027, 90 days either side of the previous November 1 2021 poll.

• Merten is a veteran political journalist specialising in parliament and governance.