The year 2025 is a perfect square, with all the other algebraic sub-fascinations that go with such numbers, just because they are. Perfect square years are rare. The last one we had was 1936 and the next one will only come around in 2116. Precious few people experience two in a lifetime, but if you were born recently you’re likely to, and if you were born long enough ago you just have.
It feels like a year of renewal, or perhaps we’re just relieved to have made it through 2024. Last year wasn’t a quiet place. More than half the world’s population went to the polls and the outcomes were a lot of more of the same, and just a few of what’s new.
South Africans have reason to feel more confident about our future because we’ve survived the dawn of the government of national unity (GNU). We now have to find intersections between opposing ambitions and ideologies. We have to make it work.
We’re becoming pragmatic. We’re looking for solutions. We want to be friends. We have to become partners. There are a hell of a lot of bees buzzing about the hive, but we are making honey. Don’t be distracted by the noise.
We have to make honey. We face the imminent threat of some borderline existential crises. The needs of the vast majority of our population are no longer nice to the haves, they’re primal and that will eventually move the focus of politicians away from each other and onto the problems at hand.
Sure, we’ll continue to argue the merits of bodyguards and blue light brigades, but there can be no debate about the necessity or urgency of solving the developing water crisis in Joburg. Don’t solve it and you won’t survive a vote of no confidence, let alone another term in office. There’s no alternative to water — just a few days without it will prove that.
It should therefore come as no surprise that we are finally having meaningful discussions about partnerships. This follows logically when the centre of power itself is a partnership, whether you like it or not. Learning curves abound, compromise and deals replace “listen carefully”.
The GNU is a necessity, born out of the result of an election that can’t be set aside in the interest of selfish agendas and absolute control. We have real-time opposition now, in the tent.
Valuable work takes place behind closed doors, guided by rules of engagement designed to deliver outcomes, not trade aspersions. It’s way better than the indecision and deferral outright control can impose. We must get answers.
Despite increased uncertainty on almost every front around the world, the financial markets still seem to be perky, with enthusiasm in both the equity markets and caution assets such as gold.
The promise stocks continue to lead the pack — investing, developing and even producing new technology stuff regardless of whether individuals or businesses are actually using enough of these products, in sufficient quantities and predictably enough to — you know — include their forecast revenue streams in a discounted cash flow valuation model.
There must be some concern about how paper-thin the foundation for mark-to-market valuations is. Maybe it’s just down to easing interest rates and the abundance of money. Same old, same old — and it looks as if it could go on forever, if you can wait — any asset manager will tell you to. I wouldn’t bet against it. But betting stocks might even be worth a bet; they leave no odds unturned nowadays and though the pundits don’t make any money, the house always does.
There’s emerging evidence to suggest we’ll likely muddle through and not be derailed by any crazies. Ironically, it is the threat of various existential crises at local municipality level that will hold us all together and force the pace on implementing solutions.
Pessimism is so 2024 and 2025 is a year to be positive.
• Barnes is an investment banker with more than 35 years’ experience in various capacities in the financial sector.
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