Donald Trump’s return to the White House benefited greatly from Americans’ reluctance to acknowledge President Joe Biden’s decline until it was too late for the Democrats to choose a candidate suited to confronting the US’s evolving challenges. Our coalition government is similarly vulnerable.
The post-Cold War period ended with the Berlin Wall falling and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Yet it is reasonable to assert that what ushered in the zeitgeist that defined a generation was the inauguration of Nelson Mandela. Social scientists use the awkward term “normative” to describe politics and policies that seek what “ought to be”. Normative policies are appealing, particularly to those less advantaged, but they do not negate the need for pragmatic policies.
Of course individuals and societies should seek what ought to be, but America, unlike SA, has suddenly recognised how easy it is for politicians and information curators, particularly media houses and universities, to exploit such idealism. The effects are greatly amplified when so many among these three groups advance mutually reinforcing perceptions.
The playbooks are well developed. History and daily challenges are routinely depicted as struggles between the oppressed and the oppressors. Left-leaning politicians declare that people have a “right” to this or that and such rights are exploited to take from one group to give to another. Such politics benefit progressive politicians while entrenching poverty. Conversely, real progress requires that those least well off become far more productive.
The ANC deserves credit for wanting to develop a new national dialogue. As we are hosting the G20 this year it should be the year we finally acknowledge that we must integrate far more deeply into the global economy.
China has the world’s most formidable manufacturing capacity, yet it can’t generate sufficient domestic demand to sustain its economy. Trump understands that only the US has a huge surplus of domestic demand and he, not unreasonably, is weaponising it via tariffs to advance US interests.
Our domestic demand is so grossly insufficient that ANC localisation policies entrench the world’s most severe youth unemployment crisis. While this cannot be remedied within a generation, progress will not begin until we adopt sweeping international relations and economic policy reforms.
Late last year I speculated in this column that Biden would bomb Iran shortly before leaving office. Recent reports suggest he had recently authorised such an attack but, reflecting close co-ordination with the incoming Trump officials, decided to rescind the order.
The bad news is that our economic policies ensure ongoing decline; the worse news is that our foreign relations policies and alignments are even more tragically conceived. On the bright side, we are hosting the G20 during a year that will involve much global recalibrating.
Mandela and the era he personified are dead. If we are to have learnt anything from that great man it should have been the power of humility.
A new national dialogue must purge bogus hopes of trickle-down benefits from investment-led growth. The focus must shift from money to people — particularly young people — and it must shift towards creating a new era whereby criticising successful nations gives way to working with them.
A tremendous imbalance is developing whereby most of the world’s surplus young labour will be in Africa while shortages develop in highly developed countries. The first Cold War ended with Asia being integrated into the more dominant Western economy. A similar transition must now be managed whereby Western companies employ huge numbers of African school-leavers in ways made possible through a global economy dominated by services and digital possibilities.
Our coalition government needs to appeal to Trump and Elon Musk by selling the potential to develop our poorly educated teenagers. Otherwise, most of our 20-somethings and 30-somethings will continue to be condemned to lifelong poverty and unemployment.
• Hagedorn is an independent strategy adviser.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.