Settlers of Catan is a famous strategy board game that was first published in 1995. The game is set on the fictional island of Catan, where players take on the role of settlers trying to build and expand their settlements by acquiring and trading resources. It feels as if we’re living in a real-world version of Settlers of Catan right now, with terse discussions on the US acquiring Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal.
This is not new news. I’m here to remind you that natural resources — and the shortage of them — has been a driver of some of the boldest policy decisions over the past century. For example, at the onset of World War 2 the US implemented the Strategic & Critical Materials Stockpiling Act of 1939. In a letter to Congress, president Franklin Roosevelt emphasised that commercial reserves of essential raw materials in the US were low and warned that in the event of extensive warfare at sea and in the air having a stockpile of these crucial supplies could be vital.
By 1942 the US government restricted non-essential gold mining to allow mining companies to focus on extracting critical minerals needed for the war effort. Less than a decade later, in response to the Korean War, the Defense Production Act of 1950 was enacted. It granted authority to allocate resources for securing strategic minerals essential for defence technology production.
Earlier this week, I found a package on my office desk. Someone had sent me a book, published in 1981, on the strategic minerals-national security nexus.
This section jumped out to me: “We are dangerously dependent on volatile sources of strategic materials... Perhaps the chief task of American military power in the 1980s will be the protection of the resources upon which we depend. The Soviet threat to oil and raw materials critical to the national security of the West is as clear as is our dependency upon them.”
There’s no denying that present-day China is the 1960s-1980s Soviet Union in terms of critical materials dominance. And China has shown a clear and consistent willingness to weaponise them against the West and disrupt important supply chains over the last five years.
China’s weaponisation of important materials began with gallium and germanium in July 2023. In December 2023, China imposed new licensing requirements on graphite, limiting the export of high-grade materials essential for battery production.
By January 2024, China had further tightened control over the industry by banning the export of rare earth separation and refining technologies. Finally, in September last year antimony was added to the list of restricted commodities — a lesser-known but critical mineral for defence applications.
Collectively, these minerals are essential for developing advanced semiconductor technologies, battery compositions, permanent magnets and defence systems.
When I look ahead to the next four years, I see a world with a lot more resource-driven foreign policy that could be forceful. But that’s not new.
The 44-year-old book that landed on my desk notes: “Our ability to meet the challenge will depend upon whether we will accept the dismal facts of international life, or whether we will only reluctantly draw conclusions that should have been obvious from the beginning, whether we will pursue policies forcefully and skilfully or halfheartedly with frequent changes in direction.”
We are already seeing it play out. Look at Greenland, which is home to a significant reserve of rare earths. The call between Trump, Denmark Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and other European leaders was described as “fiery”. The Financial Times noted that five European officials on the call said it had gone very badly.
There has been a widespread outcry in Canada against the idea of becoming the 51st US state. The US is dependent on Canada for vital resources needed for nuclear energy, heavy manufacturing and defence technologies, including aluminium, nickel and uranium.
It’s real-life Settlers of Catan as we all scramble to secure resources.
• Dr Baskaran, a development economist, is founding director of the Project on Critical Minerals Security at the Centre for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, DC.
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