Dateline: February 5 2043.
When coal demand reached a new record high in 2027, many analysts were shocked. Almost everyone had expected the peak to be reached in 2025, with a gradual plateau developing thereafter. Instead, the curve spiked upwards.
Granted, a 2.5% increase on the previous record for global coal production isn’t a quantum leap, but with all the attention being devoted to the clean energy transition you’d expect it to be in the other direction. In some ways, it mimicked the similar rise in 2024.
The reasons are all too obvious, after the fact. The inexorable rise in demand for electricity in Asia and Africa, supercharged by AI data centres, electric vehicles and “clean” industries in the West, pushed demand for primary energy resources beyond what could be absorbed by renewables. Add to that the growing disillusionment with net zero and degrowth policies, and the US under Donald Trump leading the charge against climate agreements.
To be fair, natural gas has surged to take up the slack. But with oil and gas being used as geopolitical weapons in the trade wars of the 2020s, the opportunity was there for coal to flourish. Trade in coal between the Brics countries, plus Australia, bypassed any tariffs and sanctions wielded in America and Europe. Remove the threat of carbon tax and there’s nothing to stop it.
And let’s not forget the failure of fusion power to live up to the hype. The future of cheap, almost infinite energy from nuclear fusion is tantalisingly close, but we’re not there yet.
In the long run, coal’s decline is almost certain. We’re past the peak of demand as new technologies and better alternatives take over. But for now coal is stubbornly clinging to its position as the longest-running industrial power source. Rumours of its death are greatly exaggerated.
• First published on Mindbullets, February 6 2025.
Carbon crushes metals magnates
Carbon nanoforms power the next industrial revolution
Dateline: February 7 2033.
A revolution is taking place in the manufacturing industry, and it’s all thanks to carbon. Scientists and engineers have discovered that carbon and its nanoforms, such as graphene, nanotubes and graphene oxides, can replace many metals used in industry, including copper, zinc, platinum, indium, silver and chromium.
This breakthrough has far-reaching implications for hi-tech manufacturing. Carbon nanoforms are lightweight, flexible and incredibly strong, making them perfect for use in everything from electronics to aerospace and transport. They are also highly conductive, making them ideal for use in batteries and solar cells.
The benefits of using graphene oxides are not limited to industry though. The shift away from traditional metals means a significant reduction in mining and extraction, which is not only better for the environment but also for communities that are adversely affected by mining. It’s a double-edged sword for workers, as jobs shift from mining to rehabilitation and technology.
Until now, replacing electrical wiring and conductors — typically copper and silver alloys — with graphene and carbon nanowires has been prohibitively expensive, but recent breakthroughs in 3D printing at the nanoscale, with rocketing metals prices, have made carbon the cheapest choice. Power electronics and electric car motors have never been so efficient and lightweight.
The implications of this technology are not limited to manufacturing. Carbon nanoforms are also being used in the construction industry, replacing traditional materials such as steel and concrete. The result is buildings that are stronger, more energy-efficient, and more sustainable.
The future of manufacturing is here, thanks to carbon. With the ability to replace industrial metals, this breakthrough technology is a game-changer that is set to revolutionise the way we think about raw materials, and heralds the eventual demise of the metals mining industry as we know it.
Mining giants that made the shift from gold and silver to lithium and copper now have to reinvent themselves once again!
• First published on Mindbullets, February 2023.
Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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