To this day apartheid spatial inequalities influence SA’s economy and politics. A forthcoming Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies review of provincial economies sketches the evolution of SA’s economic geography since 1996. Change has been dominated by mass migration from historic labour-sending regions, especially to Gauteng and the Western Cape, with only marginal shifts in the spatial distribution of production.
SA’s provinces largely align with apartheid’s internal borders, so their population shifts largely reflect post-apartheid migration. Gauteng and the Western Cape remained privileged enclaves, incorporating almost none of apartheid’s historically impoverished, overcrowded and deprived “homelands”. The other provinces still have 49% of their population in these areas. The fall in the share from 52% a decade ago and more than 60% at the end of apartheid underscores the extent of outmigration.
Migration leads to sharp variations in provincial population growth. Gauteng experienced a 95% jump from 1996 to 2023, raising its share in the national total from 19% to 24%. The Western Cape grew 90%, rising from 10% to 12% of the national total. The remaining provinces averaged less than 40% growth. In the Eastern Cape and Free State the population climbed only 15%, and their combined share dropped from 22% to 16%.
Economic growth in Gauteng and the Western Cape barely kept up with the population influx, though it was still faster than in the rest of the country. The GDP per person in Gauteng was R136,000 in 2023, essentially unchanged from 1996, even though the province’s total GDP increased more than 90% in real terms.
The Western Cape experienced a similar GDP growth but the per-person GDP also remained almost unchanged, at R116,000. In the rest of the country the GDP expanded far less rapidly in the past 30 years, at about 60%. Yet, slower population growth meant the GDP per person climbed from R72,000 in 1996 to R84,000 in 2023. The Eastern Cape still has by far the lowest GDP per person, at R68,000 in 2023, but it has risen 37% from R50,000 in 1996.
Overall, formal economic activity still centres on Gauteng and the Western Cape, followed by eThekwini in KwaZulu-Natal. In the rest of the country most new projects have resulted from diversification in mining and the expansion of public services and infrastructure to historically deprived communities.
In 2023 Gauteng accounted for 33% of national gross value added, virtually the same as in 1996. The Western Cape contributed 14% and KwaZulu-Natal, 16%. Together, these three provinces generated two-thirds of the national GDP, though they held only half of the population. They were particularly important for manufacturing and high-end business services. Gauteng alone hosted more than 40% of total manufacturing, professional business services and finance. In contrast, it generated about a tenth of value added in mining and agriculture, and a fifth of health and education.
Only mining experienced a significant geographic shift in the past 30 years, reflecting its diversification out of gold, primarily into platinum, iron ore and coal. Limpopo, Mpumalanga, the North West and Northern Cape expanded their joint share in mining value added from 63% in 1996 to 78% in 2023. The share of the historic gold centres — Gauteng and the Free State — plummeted by more than half, from 37% to 17%. While Gauteng could absorb the blow, it has hit the Free State’s less diversified economy hard. Meanwhile, mining towns, especially in the platinum belt, have to cater for a sudden spurt in population growth.
Mass internal migration was always going to follow after democracy ruled out oppressive, racist residential laws. However, economic policy and urban planning have been slow to catch up with the new realities. The result has been overburdened services and infrastructure in the main economic centres, while economic plans for the rest of the country are generally overambitious and ineffective.
• Makgetla is a senior researcher with Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies.
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