First we saw the Springbok home schedule for this middle year between World Cups and we thought that’s a bit too easy. Then came the away schedule and the opposite feeling was evoked.
It’s going to be an easy passage into the new season for the Boks, with two home games against Italy before they host Georgia in a one-off Test. Italy are fast improving, as their Six Nations form has indicated, but they won’t be the tough opponents on home soil in July that Ireland were last year.
Then instead of two home games against New Zealand, which really got the blood of Bok supporters pumping in 2024, it is two home games against Australia. Maybe the Wallabies will confound us all by pushing and maybe even beating the British & Irish Lions, thus amping up the focus on the two SA games against them, but it is highly unlikely.
The other home game in The Rugby Championship will be against Argentina. The Pumas beat the Boks at home last year, but as we saw when they were routed in Mbombela, they tend to be a lot less competitive on SA soil. The Boks will have fallen short of expectation if they lose any home game this year.
It is the line-up of away games that makes this the toughest year of this World Cup cycle. Instead of playing the All Blacks at home, the Boks will be playing them away, with one of those games being at Eden Park, where the Kiwis haven’t lost since 1994.
Then they head overseas for a tour that sees them play both France and Ireland on their home patches. Judging from how Wales responded to their change of coach against Ireland at the weekend, we also can’t write off the possibility that they will have grown into a more competitive force by the time November arrives either.
It is the away games against France and Ireland plus the two in New Zealand though that will provide an important litmus test for the Boks and either reaffirm to Rassie Erasmus and his Bok coaching team that they are on the right track in their build-up to the next World Cup in Australia in 2027 or provide a timely wake-up call.
The challenge awaiting the Boks this year reminds me of a mission statement made by the Bok team manager Morné du Plessis when the 1995 World Cup winners reset their goals after that tournament. Being “Champions Away” was the target Du Plessis set for the team.
Circumstances decreed that the target was never met. Part of that circumstance was a change of coach, with André Markgraaff taking over from the ailing unbeaten World Cup winning coach Kitch Christie, but an even bigger reason lay in the circumstances Markgraaff inherited.
The World Cup triumph in 1995 was followed by a stand-off between players and the establishment that led to the SA rugby bosses of the time paying off the Boks to keep them in the system. It led to an imbalance in payments between World Cup winners and new players that caused ongoing problems for the next few years that undermined performance.
There aren’t any money issues that should derail this Bok quest to underline their No 1 status by dominating all comers overseas, but there are circumstances perhaps beyond his control that could derail Erasmus in the form of SA’s never ending year round rugby season.
When New Zealand’s players returned to action in Super Rugby two weeks ago they were fresh after their off season and contributed to an overwhelmingly positive mood. Some called it the best first weekend of Super Rugby ever.
The Bok players have had sporadic rest but no proper off season since they last played the All Blacks and if the national team was to play a game right now half the team would be unavailable because of injury. Given the unrelenting schedule, there’s no reason that shouldn’t still be the case come the November tour.
If the Boks are to make a statement by beating France, who they were fortunate to edge out in the 2023 RWC quarterfinal, and Ireland, who they have not beaten in Ireland since 2012, they will need all hands on deck.
Having said that, the French haven’t dominated the Six Nations like we predicted they might when watching their clubs dominate Europe, and the Ireland team that edged out Wales looks some way short of invincible too.
I’m not sure if I agree with those UK pundits who feel Lions coach Andy Farrell should be in a flat panic over the quality of Home Union talent available to him, but neither at this stage does the end of year tour look like a mission impossible for the Boks.
Instead, if the top players can somehow stay fit and fresh, it could be a year where the Boks make a huge statement. If you beat New Zealand, France and Ireland away, what is there to fear?
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