In a matter of a few years the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has entered a phase of deep uncertainty; either the latest peace efforts in the eastern part of the country signal a fresh start, or they could just be another false start.
March will go down in history as one of the most significant milestones in the years-long conflict that has drawn in several of the DRC’s neighbouring states. After a few lukewarm attempts, east and southern African leaders made three critical decisions:
- They agreed to merge two regional peace initiatives;
- They decided that they would pull the southern African peacekeeping force out of DRC, including SA soldiers; and
- They decided for the first time that there would be direct talks between the M23 rebels and the Kinshasa administration of President Felix Tshisekedi.
Up until late last month Tshisekedi was refusing to talk with the M23 rebels. Instead, he repeatedly demanded talks with Rwanda, which is backing the rebels.
Talks brokered by Angolan President Joäo Lourenco, an AU-appointed mediator, did eventually start on March 18. However, these were marred by a last-minute decision by the rebels to boycott the exploratory negotiations.
The rebels stayed away to protest at sanctions imposed by the West on their leaders and Rwandan military commanders days before the talks started in Luanda.
The sanctions, which followed the withdrawal of foreign aid to Rwanda, were an attempt to pressure Kigali into pulling out of the DRC. Despite its overall economic success, foreign aid is still crucial to Rwanda’s public finances. Withdrawing aid could cause strain on public services.
If they can shoot and bomb their way into Kinshasa, what incentive is there for them to agree to a truce with a weakened Tshisekedi regime?
Rwanda’s military involvement has given M23 the upper hand in the DRC conflict. Morale is low among government soldiers, who are inclined to give in easily. As a result, huge swathes of the eastern DRC are now under the control of M23 and its backers.
This military advantage, plus the planned withdrawal of the beleaguered southern African troops and the sanctions, make talks unattractive to the rebels. If they can shoot and bomb their way into Kinshasa, what incentive is there for them to agree to a truce with a weakened Tshisekedi regime?
The conflict has taken a huge toll on the minerals-rich country. The DRC is blessed with vast deposits of critical minerals, those that are essential to the transition to clean energy.
Several mines, mainly joint ventures with the Kinshasa authorities, have had to pause operations due to the raging war. The chaos that has resulted benefits the uninvited guests who continue to plunder the country’s resources at will.
The losers are ordinary Congolese. The conflict has displaced thousands of people living in the eastern part of the DRC. Tshisekedi, now serving a second term, looks increasingly isolated. His neighbours have dragged their feet in coming to his aid, as has the West.
He is not blameless though. For some time he has been flirting with the idea of prolonging his stay in power; not because of the war, but through amending the constitution to add a term or two. Among his biggest critics these days is Joseph Kabila, his predecessor and son of Laurent Kabila, whose rebel army toppled Mobutu Sese Seko in 1997.
Judging by the events of this week, it’s looking increasingly unlikely that African leaders will have an appetite for M23 to shoot its way into Kinshasa. On Monday night they took another step towards a mediated settlement. In a virtual call they appointed facilitators for talks, including former eastern and southern African leaders such as Uhuru Kenyatta (Kenya), Kgalema Motlanthe (SA) and Olusegun Obasanjo (Nigeria).
The former leaders will act as facilitators of peace talks on behalf of the Southern African Development Community (Sadc), the East African Community (EAC) and the AU. This makes practical sense. Retired leaders have time on their hands, unlike the sitting presidents of EAC and Sadc countries.
The appointment of the facilitation panel shows a rare determination among the continent’s leaders to end this long-running conflict. However, determination and political strategy are ingredients of a durable solution, not a lasting solution in themselves.
The facilitators still need to clear a few hurdles before an inter-Congolese dialogue can start in earnest. They will also need both carrots and sticks to get the co-operation of all sides.
The pre-talks hurdles to clear include agreeing and implementing a ceasefire, making plans for foreign troops and mercenaries fighting on either side of the conflict to leave the DRC, and the West easing sanctions to allow the rebels to participate freely in the talks.
Before the talks start Tshisekedi will have to clearly commit to the rule of law and respect for the country’s constitution. Otherwise these talks will be another false start in the series of failed efforts to secure lasting peace in the DRC.
Finally, it should be made clear to all of the DRC’s neighbours and supporters that the ultimate solution to the country’s problems should come from the Congolese themselves.
• Dludlu, a former editor of Sowetan, is CEO of the Small Business Institute.
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