NATASHA MARRIAN: Red berets are too heavy a weight for the fragile GNU

Will the ANC rescue the EFF from its dwindling electoral fortunes? The ANC drawing the EFF into the government of national unity (GNU) to vote with it in parliament for the March 12 budget would mark a significant lifeline for the opposition party, given its decline in electoral support and internal ructions after the departure of its deputy president, Floyd Shivambu.

Outside the DA, the EFF would certainly be the neatest option for the ANC to pass the budget, which included a 0.5 percentage point VAT increase in each of the next two years. 

Talks between the ANC and its largest GNU partner, the DA, are said to be “going around in circles”, according to insiders. However, DA leader John Steenhuisen told Business Day on Thursday parties are “closer than many think” to striking a deal. 

Some believe the ANC is finding a more amenable partner in the EFF, whose main condition to vote for the budget is that the ANC boot the DA out of the GNU. The benefits are clear for the EFF: it could join the GNU and form part of the national governing coalition, with potential ministerial positions and its first taste of real power, and the ability to showcase its self-presumed abilities at a national level. 

But what would it mean for the ANC? A significant portion of ANC members feel it was short-sighted to leave the EFF outside the GNU and include the DA. The ANC’s alliance partner, the SACP, and its Gauteng leadership have been the most vocal about this, and they are not alone in their preference.  

There are economic and political ramifications of a change in the make-up of the GNU to include the EFF and boot out the DA. In a Moody’s note reported by Business Day’s Kabelo Khumalo on Thursday, the ratings agency said it expected an “orderly” budget approval process and warned that the future of the GNU would be “uncertain” if the ANC relied on votes from outside the current group. 

The potential for economic instability and capital flight is high should the EFF enter the governing coalition. However, politically there are reasons outside of the budget process that make the EFF appealing to sections of the ANC. Deputy president Paul Mashatile is overseeing the talks to reach a budget agreement and is understood to be more amenable to an EFF tie-up in preparation for his own pursuit of the top job in the ANC in two years. 

While ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula has quashed succession talk, lobbyists are still busy pushing for their preferred candidate behind the scenes. Mashatile and EFF leader Julius Malema have a long-standing relationship and he would view the red berets as a more natural ally.

Mbalula himself is said to be in the running for the post. Latest developments indicate the beginning of moves for Mashatile’s and Mbalula’s campaigns to coalesce, to avoid a bruising leadership tussle. Supporters of President Cyril Ramaphosa are largely divided on a candidate, with names ranging from police minister Senzo Mchunu to electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa being touted.

The clearest example of the political implications for governance of an EFF tie-up have already played out in Gauteng municipalities. Johannesburg mayor Dada Morero is at the mercy of the EFF, who form part of his ministerial committee. The EFF in Ekurhuleni holds at least four crucial MMC posts, yet on Thursday protested “against poor service delivery” as ANC mayor Nkosindiphile Xhakaza delivered the state of the city address. 

The EFF has proven to be an unreliable bedfellow in coalition talks, with a penchant for inconsistency, changing its mind on a whim. Last month, it declared that it would support a motion of no confidence in Xhakaza, and has since changed that decision. In 2016, the EFF partnered with the DA to vote out the ANC in Gauteng metros after the then governing party refused to remove former president Jacob Zuma.

After Zuma’s removal in 2018 the EFF again flipped its strategy and began defending him in public, culminating in Shivambu and former EFF chair Dali Mpofu joining Zuma’s MK party.

Moody’s note indicated that uncertainty around SA’s fiscal policy would increase if disagreements in the current GNU became more entrenched. This would be worsened tenfold should the EFF enter the fray. The opportunity for reform, economic growth and employment creation before the 2029 election would diminish, with dire electoral implications — mostly for the ANC.  

The EFF is too heavy a weight for the fragile ANC-led government to take on, whether it knows it or not. 

• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large.