Start talking about SA’s joblessness problem and many people instantly shift to skills development. But education is not a panacea. Undoubtedly, SA’s appallingly unequal and consequently deeply inefficient education system makes it harder to grow employment. But the long-standing structure of production in SA is an even bigger drag on jobs.
On the one hand, the mass destruction of small (black-owned) business under apartheid entrenched unusually low levels of self-employment. On the other, SA depends far more on mining than its peer economies, which encourages more capital-intensive, less jobs-rich growth. Focusing on skills development without addressing these issues will not do much about the jobs deficit in the foreseeable future.
Certainly there is a relationship between education and employment, but until you get to university it is weaker than many people seem to think. Among adults without matric, 36% are employed. For those with matric, the figure is 45%. In contrast, for people with a university degree, the employment ratio jumps to 79%. By comparison, in the rest of the world 60% of all adults have some kind of employment.
The unemployment rate, a far narrower and more subjective measure, shows a similar trend. In 2024 it ran at 38% for adults without matric; 35% for those who passed matric; and 10% for university graduates. Again, the international comparison is grim. Measured unemployment averages only 5% worldwide, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
Education levels in SA are not far enough behind other countries to explain the employment deficit. According to ILO data, in the early 2020s 16% of adults in other upper-middle-income economies had advanced education, compared with 13% in SA. While 33% of adults in peer economies had completed secondary school, in SA the figure was 36%.
The structure of the economy provides a more powerful explanation of the jobs crisis. To start with, low levels of family business account for half of the employment shortfall compared to peer economies. In the early 2020s about 5% of SA adults were employers or self-employed. In other upper-middle-income countries excluding China, the figure was 17%; in China, it was 27%.
In other words, the destruction of small business under apartheid in itself explains about half of SA’s backlog in employment. The issue isn’t just around family farms, as the share of small business owners in SA lagged almost equally in rural and urban areas.
The relative dominance of heavy, mining-based industry explains much of the rest of the jobs shortfall. In 2023, 6% of employment in SA was in agriculture, 9% in manufacturing and 3% in mining. In other upper-middle-income countries excluding China, 18% of all employed people were in agriculture and 14% in manufacturing, with just 1% in mining. In China, 22% were in agriculture with a similar share in manufacturing, and 1% in mining.
The pattern of goods exports underscores SA’s weakness in labour-intensive manufacturing and agriculture compared to peer economies. Mining contributes more than half of SA’s total exports, but less than a 20th for China and a third for all other upper-middle-income countries. In contrast, food, electronics and clothing contribute just 12% of SA’s total exports, compared with 42% for China and 28% for other peer economies. Growth in these relatively jobs-rich industries has meant industrialisation elsewhere in the world did far more to generate new employment opportunities.
Clearly, SA has not done nearly enough to overcome the distortions and inequalities in education that were entrenched under apartheid. Even within existing budget constraints we need far more innovation to ensure all students, including in working-class areas, gain the core skills needed in modern societies, especially around critical thinking, creativity and design as well as new technologies.
However, by itself that won’t fix joblessness. In the absence of measures to promote more jobs-rich growth, gaining core skills is likely only to fuel the already escalating emigration of qualified people.
• Makgetla is a senior researcher with Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies.
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