Dateline: March 27 2030
In a strange throwback to a bygone era, the current global financial turmoil has produced a multiyear low for crude oil, at about $50 per barrel. At the same time, investor nervousness about the future has pushed gold to more than $5,000/oz for the first time in history.
Oil has seen its ups and downs, but since the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and relaxation of new oil and gas development in the US more oil is being pumped daily than ever before. Natural gas use has surged as it’s no longer considered a fossil fuel — it’s manufactured daily by organic waste and bacteria — and is abundant everywhere.
Added to that is the inevitable acceleration in solar power and electric cars. Electric motors and solar panels are so efficient and cheap that it’s a no-brainer for most markets to make the switch, especially in megacities, where clean air is no longer considered a luxury but simply a basic human right. Caught between higher output and lower demand, oil has dwindled in value but is still an important industrial commodity.
On the other hand, finance and investment have seen more volatility than ever. From trade deals to regional power plays to currency wars — including crypto crashes — the supercharged world of high-speed global money has become a minefield for the under-resourced participant. And “under-resourced” means not enough intelligent computing power. Now that AI has changed the game, humans — even maths PhDs — can’t compete.
Which is why gold has rallied, once again, to incredible highs. There’s so much uncertainty and sentiment switches from greed to fear and back again daily. Gold is the one precious commodity that has stood the test of time, again and again, as the ultimate store of real value and a hedge against money, which is, after all, just information.
• First published on Mindbullets March 27 2025.
America the oil exporter
Unconventional oil and gas alters the geopolitical balance
Dateline: July 4 2025
Over the past 20 years North American oil and gas reserves have been boosted by the large scale exploitation of so-called unconventionals — mainly shale oil and tar sands. Now America is self-sufficient in oil production and has even begun exporting petroleum products further afield.
Admittedly, a lot of the new production has come from Canada and Alaska, but that’s a small price to pay to reverse the US dependency on the Opec cartel. Fracking was also a key technology in this development.
A little more than a decade ago the US was awash with natural gas, until gas-to-liquid technology was imported from Sasol and American gas guzzlers began guzzling, well, gas.
Combined with the increasing development of African and South American offshore oilfields, America’s turnaround on oil has left the Opec nations with few other big customers — other than China. But even China is losing interest in oil, as its solar, nuclear and synthetic fuel programmes are booming. Fracking unlocked vast reserves of gas in China too.
Russia discovered that oil from the frozen north was actually much cheaper and in plentiful supply. Now the oil price is falling and the “Second Arab Spring” could become a reality.
• First published on Mindbullets July 5 2012.
Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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