A recent webinar hosted by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra) on the Trump administration helped it gain a few minutes of local and international fame. During those moments commentators tried to locate the 15-year-old think-tank’s ideological bent, with authors from the Brenthurst Foundation describing it as an "ANC think-tank".
Yet from its inception founder and executive director Joel Netshitenzhe has repeated as an article of faith that we go where the research takes us, including being critical of the government and all political parties.
Mistra staffers are not required to show any party-political affiliation, but to simply abide by its vision of “an institute for research and reflection on domestic and global dynamics, impacting on the advancement of SA society and humanity”.
Think-tanks operate in a challenging environment characterised by poor economic performance, constraining the extent to which corporates can fund our activities. We also face issues germane to the global “think industry”, such as rising populism, anti-intellectualism, and scepticism towards objective research, which undermines the perceived value of evidence-based policy. In this context, social media amplifies emotional rather than factual content.
In 2023 Mistra decided to use one of its favoured tools of analysis, the scenario methodology, to figure out its own future positioning. We had to take into account that the 2024 election was going to see a shift from a dominant party system to coalition governments at various levels. Also, a highly competitive consultancy sector offering specialised services to government and business was putting pressure on traditional research institutes.
A reluctance to take clear positions to avoid offending potential clients would ultimately diminish its credibility with both policymakers and businesses.
We also noted that unstable geopolitics, climate change challenges and monetary pressures from inflation were creating complex research demands, but also funding constraints.
Off the back of these drivers Mistra concluded that the future could go in two possible directions. The Distrustful Discourses scenario would see early SA research institutes face existential challenges largely due to persistent low economic growth, declining funding as both the government and private donors viewed research as an unaffordable luxury, and widespread distrust of expertise and evidence-based approaches.
Under this scenario research institutes can become propaganda outlets for political or economic interests, attempt to compete with established consultancies despite lacking specialised capacity, or simply close shop.
Mistra could have considered becoming what was termed a “chameleon institute”, pivoting to corporate consultancy without sufficient capacity, thus compromising its core policy research competencies. A reluctance to take clear positions to avoid offending potential clients would ultimately diminish its credibility with both policymakers and businesses.
The other possible scenario was that of Tentative Transformation, where SA research institutes thrive during the early 2030s due to economic improvements from consistent coalition-supported policies, policymaking shifting from crisis management to addressing longer-term challenges and growing appreciation for evidence-based policy after past crises.
The Rainbow Institute in this scenario advocates for democracy, human rights and inclusivity while creating space for diverse perspectives, thus building credibility. Its freely available research influences media coverage while its reputation attracts the private sector for its research, creating a sustainable model and becoming a “national asset”.
Mistra’s conclusion after this exercise provides salutary lessons for all such organisations — primarily that we require flexibility with integrity. That is, maintaining core research values while adapting funding models and delivery methods to changing circumstances. Furthermore, we need collaborative partnerships with civil society organisations, businesses and government entities to share resources and amplify impact. Importantly, we need to leverage off technology to both conduct research more efficiently and disseminate findings more widely, despite limited internet access in some communities.
Mistra’s experience of diverse funding has to be maintained, by developing multiple revenue streams including consulting, subscription services, training and philanthropy, to reduce dependency on single sources. And, most importantly, it must counter anti-intellectualism by communicating research in accessible ways and demonstrating practical relevance to everyday concerns.
It is this independence that has allowed Mistra to serve as an effective platform for debates around Trumpism, the situation in the Middle East, and the state after 30 years of democracy, to name but a few of the hot topics we have addressed in the past few months.
• Abba Omar is Mistra director of operations.
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