The US president is a property developer and casino operator, whereas ours is a former anti-apartheid activist and union leader. They are accomplished negotiators with very different values and objectives.
While President Cyril Ramaphosa has prioritised ANC unity, Donald Trump has reinvented the Republican Party sidelining most of its former leaders. Surprisingly, the Republicans are now less concerned with business interests and more focused on lower-income families.
The ANC was still transforming itself from a liberation movement into a governing political party when Ramaphosa’s predecessor shifted the party’s operating style to that of a patronage network. Ramaphosa presided over former president Jacob Zuma’s expulsion from the party, but rooting out patronage would have undermined party unity.
Ramaphosa continues to promote an image of a moral crusader dedicated to overcoming the evils of colonisation. In the minds of many, Trump’s image has been shaped by his pursuit of women and riches.
That our budget crisis coincides with Trump’s tariff turmoil is telling. Ramaphosa tamped down the worst examples of corruption, yet the ANC’s electoral prospects still rely heavily on patronage, which extends from a bloated, inefficient public service to grants for nearly half the population. The budget battle makes clear that the ANC will continue to sacrifice growth to fund patronage.
Trump seeks to use the enormous US trade deficit to exact concessions from trading partners. While some countries will have little choice but to comply, much could go wrong. Turmoil in financial markets could be followed by rising inflation alongside compounding job losses and much discontent among US voters.
Ramaphosa and many of his lieutenants continue to see SA as — in the words of our erstwhile ambassador to the US — a “moral superpower”. With SA hosting this year’s Group of 20 (G20) summit, the ANC has provided the theme of “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability”.
Having entrenched the world’s most severe youth unemployment crisis, hosting the G20 offered a path for SA to pursue greater global integration. This opportunity was missed despite it being our only path to high-volume job creation.
It is not that ANC elites are opposed to job creation per se. They very much favour an excess of public sector jobs. But to follow the lead of high-growth countries they would need policies that emphasise high productivity and competitiveness to add value to exports. Unfortunately, such policies are irreconcilable with the ANC’s deep embrace of patronage.
As the ANC has emphasised “localisation”, our economy is less directly vulnerable to emerging trade wars. But localisation, alongside BEE-styled policies, also explains why our unemployment crisis is so deeply entrenched. Paths towards normal workforce participation begin with rejecting such policies.
Politicians intuitively appreciate the temptations and perils of patronage. World leaders see clearly that the ANC has employed social justice rhetoric to camouflage its patronage-focused policies. What ANC leaders, and our national discourse, have been slow to appreciate is just how far geopolitics have suddenly shifted.
Ramaphosa would have us believe he is clearly morally superior to Trump. Yet global leaders fully appreciate that our near-world-leading levels of murder and rape directly relate to SA’s highest-in-the-world youth unemployment. It is not that South Africans are inherently unemployable or prone to murdering and raping.
This dire situation traces directly to a patronage system that benefits governing elites at the expense of citizens. Meanwhile, support for Hamas further sullies the ANC’s image.
The government of national unity may or may not hold. Ramaphosa might depart the Union Buildings soon or in 2027. What is clearer is that Ramaphosa’s presidential legacy will make little mention of solutions. He has consistently prioritised keeping the ANC together over solving SA’s deep challenges.
Trump’s efforts to end hostilities in Ukraine and the Middle East might fail. The same is true of his efforts to revamp global trade. I’m not sure if Ramaphosa or Trump is more moral, but Trump deserves some credit for at least pursuing solutions.
• Hagedorn is an independent strategy adviser.
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