It’s a good job that all we’re doing is scrambling to find the right envoy to engage the US. Don’t get me wrong — I think Mcebisi Jonas is a wise choice; he’s sensible enough, advocates economic inclusion and champions a corruption-free, high-performance state.
He has also been in the forefront of calls for reform within the ANC. This should go down well with informed folk in the US. The problem is, they’re few and far between in Trump’s immediate circle, and the Africa desk hasn’t even been set up. No-one should take real umbrage Jonas’s past potshots at Donald Trump — after all, who hasn’t let rip at some stage given Trump’s personality?
Anyhoo (as they say in the Trump voting heartlands) good luck to him. Better Jonas engaging in jaw-jaw than war-war on SA (as Churchill might have said) — be it in trade tit-for-tats or on the ground militarily. Best he focuses on what the US needs from us, because to rely in any way on our other strengths wouldn’t necessarily be wise.
Take the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) for example. It’s simply not operational. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), air support was limited to a single Rooivalk, which was disabled more than a year ago by M23 rebels. We lack theatre transport capability, and despite a stated intention to buy these the deal hasn’t materialised.
Just two of our 26 Saab Gripen fighters are airworthy and three 24 BAE Hawks. Worse still is the state of our helicopters: only one of our more than 50 is airworthy. Not one of our Rooivalk choppers is flying, and only one of our four frigates and none of our submarines can go to sea.
What exactly Jonas has in his arsenal will need to be bolstered by the Brics bloc and based on a clear understanding of the pain US tariffs can inflict.
More than 80% of the defence ministry’s budget is spent on personnel. The SANDF is an instrument for the placement of former MK combatants and ANC allies.
We suffered a major setback in 2013 in the Central African Republic, where 13 South Africans were killed, and again prematurely abandoned the Sadc mission in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province last year because we don’t have operational transport aircraft.
Our recent withdrawal from the DRC only demonstrates that SA, a country aspiring to a seat on the UN Security Council, lacks the capacity to project even a modicum of force beyond our borders. So I’m glad — and Jonas must be too — that he is not the military envoy.
Taking stock
But I digress. What exactly Jonas has in his arsenal will need to be bolstered by the Brics bloc and based on a clear understanding of the pain US tariffs can inflict. The loss of African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa) benefits may well lead to job losses in manufacturing, agriculture and the automobile sector, where production relies on tariff-free access. We may have to weather the storm or seek other ports.
Without Agoa SA may well seek similar agreements with the EU, Brics nations and the African Continental Free Trade Area. That is what Jonas will need to push for in the absence of a bilateral free trade deal with the US, which would come at a cost to sovereignty in respect of some of our international stances, most notably on Palestine.
All is not lost though. The US needs our platinum group metals for catalytic converters; manganese for steelmaking; chromium for aerospace alloys; vanadium for steel strengthening, aerospace and grid-scale batteries; titanium for medical devices; and zirconium for nuclear reactors. The US government classifies many of these minerals as “critical” for national security and economic competitiveness.
So, good luck to Jonas; that’s his armoury in the absence of a military that can stand behind him. Vasbyt, as they say in the SA heartlands.
• Cachalia is a former DA MP and public enterprises spokesperson.
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