To offset the blow from the first VAT increase in democratic SA back in 2018, state capture accused, former finance minister Malusi Gigaba quoted US rapper and poet Kendrick Lamar, saying: “We gon’ be right, we gon’ be alright”.
It was a tumultuous time in SA politics as the country reeled from the state capture hangover and the recall of its second president, now MK party frontman Jacob Zuma, just a week earlier.
There was no turning back once the hapless Gigaba announced the VAT hike. Like it or lump it, Gigaba in effect told SA. These were the comforts of ANC political dominance, which in May last year were dramatically stripped away by a gatvol electorate.
Just seven years later, as a 40% party, ANC finance minister Enoch Godongwana faced an unprecedented backlash against his second attempt at a budget, which included a 50 basis point increase this year and next.
The backlash came from both within the seventh administration’s 10-month old coalition government and outside it. Despite the ANC’s political manoeuvring to secure support from outside the government of national unity (GNU), smaller parties held fast in their refusal to vote for the remaining bills to pass the budget unless the VAT hike was scrapped.
In the end it was the blistering line of questioning by a full bench in the Western Cape High Court that delivered the death blow to the ill-fated tax and culminated in Godongwana conceding defeat.
What is left is a political mess and more uncharted political terrain, which could still see the DA ejected from the GNU. This will be a key question over the coming days as the ANC and DA meet to discuss the “reset” of the partnership.
It all boils down to political will and maturity; there is still a chance the relationship can be salvaged, but the terms of engagement need to go up a notch.
DA federal executive chair Helen Zille said on Thursday that the ANC changes its positions constantly and has an inexplicable disdain for setting agreements down in writing. Yet international experience shows that written agreements between coalition partners are crucial to build and maintain trust between erstwhile opponents as they seek to build bridges and work together.
Germany’s latest coalition treaty extends to 144 pages and sets out a detailed programme of action for the entire coalition government. While those agreements have no standing in law, they are politically binding.
The ANC’s aversion to written agreements can perhaps be traced back to its history as a liberation movement, up against the apartheid regime in exile and at risk of arrest, torture and even death. But as the largest party in a modern constitutional democracy, which the party governed outright for three decades, such concerns are no longer justified.
The real motive is probably to leave its options open — the ANC showed during the budget saga that it preferred exploring other options instead of seeing through tough negotiations with its largest coalition partner.
In the coming days both parties will have to assess whether to stay the course or for the DA to return to the opposition benches. The ANC can’t commit to the GNU and then seek support elsewhere when convenient or when the going gets tough.
It is time for President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC to commit or move on. This applies even if the ANC opts to eject the DA and bring in ActionSA and others.
Voters, investors and business should be able to assess parties based on a comprehensive, signed agreement, to which they can be held to account and to which they can fall back in the event of disagreements. It is the only way to ensure much-needed certainty and stability.
• Marrian is Business Day editor at large.
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