Three months, three budgets, third time lucky. The question is whether what is put before the house on May 21 is credible, and if it establishes the urgently needed foundation to free SA from its daily R1bn debt repayment trap.
Budget 3.0 must have fiscal credibility. Fortunately, the National Treasury enjoys confidence globally because it implements what it says it will do and ensures departments comply with spending plans. This has already benefited SA — the potential blowback after the unprecedented postponement of the February 19 budget turned out to be no more than a blip.
The real question mark is over the budget’s political and governance credibility. Governance-wise, the 2025 budget has been an unmitigated mess, as long-established processes such as the budget committee of ministers and cabinet buy-in briefings have failed.
Finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s public assurance that things will be done differently this time is important. That this is more than the hackneyed platitudes of “lessons learnt” is clear, with politicians from the DA now participating in the budget’s drafting.
Whether the national legislature wants to be more than a junior partner remains to be seen. Despite substantial constitutional and statutory powers, including the right to amend or reject the budget, parliament continues to cede its authority. It seems to see itself more as an implementing agent.
But this was only really possible when the ANC held the majority in the house. In today’s coalition era, it is more complicated than that. Parliament’s stock response remains to bend the knee to the executive — delaying the budget without insisting the finance minister account to the house as part of its oversight and allowing political processes to determine the adoption of a flawed fiscal framework that was set aside by the courts.
As the DA and EFF declared the court ruling a victory underscoring their correctness in opposing the proposed VAT hike, Godongwana reiterated that all he did was his constitutional duty to table a budget. Parliament maintained it did nothing wrong and all its processes “strictly complied” with the constitution and laws. But the reality is that the Western Cape High Court setting aside the fiscal framework speaks to its flawed processing and adoption — even if the ruling does not expressly say so.
These attitudes cut to the heart of SA politics, which is dominated by deflection and short-termism. The ANC is now discussing a “reset” of the national unity government after the budget processes made it clear it no longer has the numbers to simply get its way. The national unity coalition with the DA is uncomfortable, but finding other votes to pass legislation requires chasing political solutions that break governance rules and precedence.
Pointing fingers at the DA and accusing it of defining itself as an opposition outside government has become the ANC tactic to absolve itself from political arrogance and cack-handedness. It comes at an important political time. The opening volleys for the ANC elective 2027 conference have already been fired and mark the start of a traditionally unsettling period of factional jockeying, even if ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula tells everyone it’s not yet time.
Meanwhile, pressure is rising ahead of the local government elections, which must be held between August 1 2026 and January 31 2027. Amid cyclical political events, governance remains a constant. The hard work of running a country might be seen as boring in personality- and crisis-focused SA politics, which prioritises contesting for power.
Yet it is this hard work of governance that will ensure SA has a stable future where budgets reflect effective social spending rather than ballooning debt repayments.
• Merten is a veteran political journalist specialising in parliament and governance.
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