The DA’s succession race, now less than a year away, is as important as the ANC’s in deciding the course of future national coalition governments. The ANC’s elective conference is two years off.
A lot can happen between now and the day ANC deputy president Paul Mashatile hopes to be elected president. While he and ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula are the main contenders in the race, there are moves to push former KwaZulu-Natal premier and police minister Senzo Mchunu to stand for the post, mostly by supporters linked to President Cyril Ramaphosa. The long-standing debate over a female candidate also hovers.
A new dimension complicating the ANC succession race is the actual “electability” of its would-be president — will the candidate selected by ANC branches hold enough appeal with the broader electorate? It is a crucial question the realists in the ANC are contemplating as Mashatile and Mbalula continue their respective plays for internal party support.
While the ANC realists are a minority by far, the Brenthurst Foundation’s latest survey provides a glimpse of sentiment among the electorate. Former president Jacob Zuma, EFF leader Julius Malema, Build One SA leader Mmusi Maimane and Mashatile rank as the least favoured politicians in SA.
President Cyril Ramaphosa remains the most favoured, though his popularity has dropped by eight percentage points since March last year. And of course, Mashatile’s favourability might grow should he be elected to lead the ANC.
Looming large over SA’s political horizon is the DA’s elective conference in April next year. John Steenhuisen was elected interim leader of the DA in 2019 and re-elected for a second term at the DA’s largest elective conference in 2023. At that gathering Steenhuisen declared the EFF to be the DA’s primary enemy, vowing to work to prevent a populist, nationalist coalition between the ANC and EFF from taking over SA.
Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is popular, hard-working and quietly breaking down some of the old barriers that held back DA growth.
Months later Zuma launched the MK party, another nationalist splinter from the ANC. It was on the basis of his vow to prevent SA from sliding into the hands of kleptocratic nationalists that Steenhuisen pushed forward with the DA’s entry into the government of national unity, which now presides over the seventh administration.
While Steenhuisen appears likely to stand for re-election, the DA also needs some realists in the room to chart the way forward towards both the local elections, which could take place any time from November 2026 to January 2027, and the 2029 general election.
Steenhuisen has been effective in propelling the party in a new direction, but a strong contender for the post in next year’s race could go a long way towards energising the DA’s base and winning over new support to revitalise its flat lining electoral fortunes.
Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is popular, hard-working and quietly breaking down some of the old barriers that held back DA growth. Last month he welcomed the ANC’s Cape Town caucus leader, Banele Majingo, after he resigned from his erstwhile party to join the DA.
Hill-Lewis is also presiding over the largest in-migration of South Africans from other provinces into Cape Town, a city at the forefront of infrastructure development and maintenance, job creation and service delivery compared with metros countrywide.
Then there is basic education minister Siviwe Gwarube, a dynamic leader with appeal across party lines who is also known for her effectiveness and work ethic.
What the DA needs going into the coming elections are strategic, dynamic leaders with vision, able to take hard decisions to propel it into the future. It requires pragmatic leaders who are willing to put dogma aside in future coalition discussions.
It is time for the DA to think outside the box.
• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large.
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