Previewing the final of the World Test Championship with 21 days to go is undoubtedly the sportswriting equivalent of the sprinter’s false start but, frankly, the error carries no automatic disqualification in this business, so here goes. And there will be more premature previews to come.
The popular perception is that SA’s likely starting XI will be heavy underdogs to Australia at Lord’s on June 11 — even the jovially optimistic but sensibly pragmatic coach, Shukri Conrad, concedes as much. But a lack of experience, he points out, does not equate to a lack of talent.
Mitchell Starc is closing in on 400 Test wickets (382) while captain Pat Cummins (294) and Josh Hazlewood (279) are nearing 300. Statistically they are the most successful fast-bowling trio of all time, though several West Indian triumvirates would have challenged their record had they played together more often. And that’s before we get to Nathan Lyon, the cantankerous veteran off-spinner who has gathered 553 scalps.
It’s easy to see why sceptical pessimists believe this bowling quartet might be too much for a batting line-up without an Amla, a Kallis, an AB or a Graeme Smith. But just as a lack of experience doesn’t equal a lack of ability, neither does the lack of reputation. They take time (and many runs) to acquire.
In the absence of 40 or 50 Test matches we can only measure a batter’s potential for success at the highest level by the way they have performed at domestic first-class level and an average of 40 remains the benchmark for “good”.
A first-class average of more than 50 in a first-class career sustained for a decade is “very good”, bordering on excellent. SA has three of them pencilled to bat in the top seven at Lord’s.
Ryan Rickelton’s last Test innings yielded 259 against Pakistan at Newlands in January, which boosted his Test average beyond 40 in just 10 Tests, but he has averaged 50 plus at domestic level for more than 10 years, including time in the English County Championship with Northamptonshire.
David Bedingham, too, averages more than 50 in 113 first-class games, the majority of which have been played in England for Durham. Kyle Verreynne, now playing for Nottinghamshire, tops 50 in just short of 100 games and already has four centuries in 24 Tests, an unusually high return for a wicketkeeper.
Let’s not forget that captain Temba Bavuma’s Test average is now a respectable 38, him having played a critical role in the last seven Tests, which his team needed to win to reach the final. Tristan Stubbs is in the infancy of his Test career, having played only 26 first-class matches yet he, too, averages 46 and already has two Test centuries.
Intriguingly, all-rounder Wiaan Mulder is likely to bat at No 3. He has a sound defensive technique and a highly respectable first-class average of 36 considering he has also taken 196 first-class wickets at 28 apiece in 85 matches, which included two highly successful seasons for Leicestershire. Yet more experience in English conditions in the Proteas squad. Mulder is not a natural No 3 but he must be accommodated in the starting XI for one very good reason. Swing.
Though both SA and Australia use the Kookaburra ball in domestic cricket, the WTC final will be played using the English Dukes ball which swings — and seams — more than the Kookaburra. Mulder is a natural swing bowler and is the perfect ally to the varied pace of Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen and probably Lungi Ngidi, though Dane Paterson has enjoyed six consecutively successful seasons in County Cricket and is now playing for Middlesex so knows the Lord’s conditions well.
“The Dukes ball retains its swing for much longer than the Kookaburra and doesn’t deteriorate as quickly, so it’s definitely a good idea to have a bowler who shapes the ball in the air,” says former Proteas coach and bowling guru, Eric Simons. “Australia have Mitchell Starc to swing the new ball and KG can also swing it but a second swing bowler could be important.”
Keshav Maharaj may not have 500+ Test wickets but he does have 198 at an average of under 30 and it’s not just his teammates and countrymen who rate him as a match for Lyon in a one-off Test match, temperamentally and skills-wise. And talking of matchups — Rabada’s 327 Test wickets at 22 apiece make him comfortably the equal and probably a small notch above the great Australian pace trio.
No, the Proteas are not favourites. Australia are. It’s just a little irksome that too many SA supporters have bought into the narrative that Bavuma’s team is somehow lucky to be there. Stop it. It is a bloody good team and it is on its way up, unlike the Australians.
Possible SA XI: Aiden Markram, Ryan Rickelton, Wiaan Mulder, Temba Bavuma (capt), Tristan Stubbs, David Bedingham, Kyle Verreynne, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi.
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