May 14 2028
It seems like a fairy-tale, but the past four years of chaotic economic conflict are finally settling down and everyone’s a winner. The big gorillas in global trade and industry have realised — at last — that we’re all in this together.
Gone are the cries of “America first!” and “Make Switzerland cheap again”. Now it’s all about partnership, inclusive growth, and collaboration. Because, well, prosperity.
As one famous economist was fond of saying: “International trade is the only free lunch, where both sides benefit.” In a bilateral relationship, one party may benefit more than the other, but they’re both better off than no trade at all. When everyone plays to their strengths, the world is better off without tariffs.
For a while there was serious disagreement on what constituted unfair trade rules, and who needed to make the most concessions, but everyone realised eventually that you have to level the playing field if you want all the players to carry on with the game. And the best way to do that is to remove all the barriers, and incentivise participation and investment.
Now you can buy Chinese cars made in America, as well as American trucks made in China. And almost anything you need to keep business booming can be sourced from wherever it’s most efficiently produced. It’s a harsh reality, but you can’t subsidise poorly performing companies with tax dollars indefinitely.
It’s just a fact. Protectionism protects the few at the expense of the many. It taxes everyone to benefit the well connected, and stifles growth and innovation. Take away the fences, and everyone has to fend for themselves, forcing them to rise to the occasion.
But that works both ways, and mutual co-operation can achieve what some consider impossible — mutually assured construction.
First published on Mindbullets May 15 2025
Walls go up, trade comes down
Global downturn follows isolationist resurgence
March 7 2021
Brexit, Trump and now Le Pen. As the old, established economies turn inward and nationalist, global trade and co-operation suffer. It’s been left to the new, New World, what used to be called emerging markets, to carry the torch of free trade.
As Tim Harford notes: “The first and most fundamental insight is that all human civilisation is built on some sort of trade.” ALL human civilisation. Productivity and progress rely on exploiting comparative advantages with trade, to everyone’s gain.
But the old guard, turned new protectionist, seem to be blinded by populist memes, and deaf to economic common sense. Short termism rules if you’re chasing votes, not growth.
The new champions, China, India, Africa and Latin America, are carving themselves a future based on encouraging trade and
co-operative competition, even as the loss of rich-world markets shrinks the global pie. In the long run, open economies will thrive and flourish, despite the best vindictive efforts of the old masters.
It’s ironic to think that the lessons learnt by China, that closing itself off from the world leads only to deprivation and decline, are lost on the “enlightened” nations of America and Europe. Luckily there are hungry competitors in the Gulf states and Australasia to take up the slack. Opportunities abound for the bold.
A decade from now, the newly disenfranchised, formerly leading countries will look back and say: “How did we end up on the wrong side of history?” But in the surging tide of populism and nationalistic fervour, all that matters is the majority vote.
Those who know that walls don’t work, that “security” creates barriers and isolation, will be the victors. But we could have all profited from a more open world. There lies the tragedy.
First published on Mindbullets February 23 2017
• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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