It has been a year since former president Jacob Zuma’s MK party upended the political order in SA. What does his party’s performance so far say about its future prospects?
Its performance in by-elections has been uneven and erratic, still largely limited to KwaZulu-Natal. Yet it has broken through in areas where it failed to gain traction in the 2024 election, such as the North West.
Polling by the Brenthurst Foundation in April placed MK’s support at 11%, down from its electoral high of 14%. In its first anniversary statement the party doubled down on its allegation that the election was rigged, despite its court cases against the Electoral Commission having stalled. Zuma’s popularity has taken a nosedive, plunging nine percentage points to 40%, the foundation’s poll found.
Numbers aside, MK’s performance as the official opposition in parliament has been dismal — chaotic and driven by empty rhetoric. Even the EFF is outshining it in parliament, despite being relegated to the fourth-largest party in the chamber.
This week MK removed its chief whip, Mzwanele Manyi, who has proven incapable of holding onto crucial posts for lengthy periods in his chaotic political career. From penning a dull, uninspired address for caucus leader John Hlophe on the state of the nation address to wielding no real heft in key parliamentary debates, MK has assumed the mantle that characterised Zuma’s term in the ANC — loud, talentless mediocrity.
Despite being part of the government of national unity (GNU), the DA has played the most crucial opposition role, especially by reversing the VAT hike through its court challenge; the EFF tagging onto the court case later and holding a march to celebrate its “victory”.
MK played no meaningful role in the VAT saga, barring largely incoherent speeches in various committees. Even disgraced former Eskom chief Brian Molefe, who was once considered finance minister material by Zuma’s ANC, failed to impress for MK in parliament’s finance committee.
This wild card is within the ANC — Zuma remains adept at exploiting division in the party he once led, particularly after the DA’s inclusion in the GNU.
Manyi embarrassingly called for a “motion of no confidence” in finance minister Enoch Godongwana, a process that does not exist in parliament. He has now been replaced by Colleen Makhubele, the SA Rainbow Alliance founder and former COPE leader and City of Johannesburg speaker. Her weakness on process was on full display during her “chair of chairs” tenure in Johannesburg, when she flouted procedure in calling a special council sitting to elect a new speaker.
MK is also said to be divided over the appointment of former EFF deputy president Floyd Shivambu as secretary-general. Key Zuma allies continue to view him with suspicion, mainly over the ease with which he ditched his former friend, confidante and EFF cofounder Julius Malema.
MK has taken contradictory stances on global political developments — it issued a lengthy, congratulatory statement on the election of US President Donald Trump and then lashed out at Ramaphosa for “bowing to imperialists” during his Washington trip last week.
While MK has been messy since its ground-breaking entry into electoral politics last year, it continues to hold a key political card that could put wind in its sails in the local government elections next year.
This wild card is within the ANC — Zuma remains adept at exploiting division in the party he once led, particularly after the DA’s inclusion in the GNU. This is likely to continue to fracture the ANC internally, which will ultimately benefit Zuma and his fledgling outfit. Ramaphosa’s economic failures will also continue to fuel the fire of populists.
A year on, Zuma finally has what he always wanted: he is a “dictator” in his family-owned political party. How long that will last remains in the hands of the party in whose colours he pledged to meet Jesus one day — the green, black and gold of the ANC.
• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large.
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