With all the global flashpoints of conflict and a narrowing of cosmopolitanism, it is not only conspiracy theorists and zealots who now wonder whether World War 3 is imminent. Each day, news of an escalation in Ukraine, Gaza, Khartoum, Taiwan or Pakistan, leaves me worrying that this time it has gone too far.
Some defence experts are making the case that the distribution of conflicts means World War 3 is already here. I have personally been on edge since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24 2022. True, the Donbas war in Ukraine had been raging since 2014, so what was it about that day that I found so alarmingly different?
Was it the spectacle of war intensifying the quiet, unrelenting panic of the Covid-19 pandemic, where there was little else to do but be under siege by the onslaught of the global media? Or was it the geopolitical analyst in me, recognising centuries-old patterns in the tea leaves amid the noise of breaking news?
The ability of Russia to withstand economic pressure from the Group of Seven will be a factor in prolonging its war with Ukraine, no matter how much US President Donald Trump fancies himself as the dove of peace. Russia has proved more resilient than expected to international sanctions, pivoting quickly to “Russify” global brands. KFC became “Rostics”, Starbucks became “Stars” and McDonald’s became “Vkusno i Tochka”. The Russian economy remains supported by vast natural resources, domestic food and energy production and the stabilising effect of China.
But will Russia now get more desperate to produce a campaign of shock and awe when it is alleged it has already lost almost
1-million troops since 2022? As I write, Nato has expressed alarm at Russian forces accumulating on the Finnish border, while Ukraine has launched a major drone offensive on four airbases across Russia.
What does this mean for other countries biting their fingers on the sidelines, hoping not to get drawn into an apocalyptic hellscape? With everything else going on globally, is this a stress test too far? Is it an enabler for more overt aggression? Several European countries voiced concern about their lack of military preparedness at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual defence summit organised by the International Institute of Strategic Studies that took place this past weekend in Singapore. Sweden, Germany, Finland and the UK are all beefing up their arsenals.
Germany’s chief of defence, Gen Carsten Breuer, is adamant that Nato must prepare for a Russian attack by 2029, while the UK’s annual Strategic Defence Review is expected to say that Britain must “prepare for war” and address its shortage of troops. The UK is investigating potential Russian involvement in three recent arson attacks targeted at properties connected to its prime minister, Keir Starmer, including his family home in Kentish Town, London.
Another problem is that the nature of war has changed. Debilitating cyberattacks have struck UK retailers such as Marks & Spencer; autonomous weapons such as killer robots and drones will become more prevalent; and the air capability of stealth bombers such as Northrop Grumman’s B-2 Spirit grow ever more sophisticated. How much longer can we outsource war to the simulacra of our smartphones?
Apparently, SA has time to ponder this. Along with New Zealand and Australia it is geographically advantaged, and resource insulated against World War 3. SA is also geostrategically arbitraged by its non-alignment policy. But it would not be able to stave off military involvement indefinitely given the years of decline of its defence force, technological deficiencies and so many other competing priorities amid diplomatic difficulties with the sitting US president.
And so it is that despite global socioeconomic turbulence and rampant unemployment, the most nihilistic economists continue to advocate for defence spending.
• Dr Masie is a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics.
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