SA politics is in deep flux and coming into its own as democracy matures, quite independently of the desires or intentions of politicians.
Moving out of one-party dominance, South Africans are growing increasingly confident — so much so that they are now willing to shop around for the party of their preference, and if they don’t find one simply stay home instead of voting. Multiparty democracy is coming into its own.
Pollsters have shared their views on how the shift is taking shape, and it should be deeply worrying for the ANC. Polling companies such as Victory Research have found that in the wake of the 2024 election a chunk of previously loyal ANC voters are now “adrift”, willing to shift their support and vote for another party such as the EFF or MK or, to a lesser extent, the DA.
This shift is historic, said Social Research Foundation chair Frans Cronje, who has been analysing the political landscape for decades. The responses to “supporting” questions asked by pollsters are used to assign voters to categories — an ANC voter, a typical DA voter, an EFF voter or, more recently, an MK voter.
“A couple of months ago we started getting results where the voters weren’t passing the threshold test, so we couldn’t assign them to a party and this was almost exclusively the case for [former] ANC voters,” he told Business Day.
“Not all of them, but about a quarter. A quarter of 40% is about 10% of the electorate ... they really became free agents, and from week to week or month to month ... they’re moving around now. So it’s like their tether has been cut.”
This has enormous implications for the ANC, this group of voters and the opposition parties vying for their support. The 2024 election in effect dispelled the myth that the “country would collapse” if the ANC lost its majority.
A quarter of 40% is about 10% of the electorate … they really became free agents, and from week to week or month to month … they’re moving around now. So it’s like their tether has been cut.
— Frans Cronje
Social Research Foundation chair
“They thought there will be chaos and anarchy and we might as well back the winner, but now all of that has gone. That’s why this chunk is adrift ... [it] could go to MK ... the EFF ... they could just sort of wander around,” Cronje said.
“What is interesting is that they’re not radical populists. They don’t like the idea of MK. They don’t like the idea of the EFF for much the same reasons. They don’t like the idea of the DA much either ... I think they could have a problem,” he said.
The question is what this group of voters really want. In Cronje’s view the easiest path for them would be to “go home” to the ANC, but that rests almost completely on the party’s conduct from now until the next election.
For its part, the party has been struggling to analyse the outcome of the most recent election — yet all it has to do is look at the economy, the state of service delivery in Johannesburg, the devastating impact of crime and corruption on communities, and the simmering anger over the perception that illegal immigration is out of control.
Instead, the ANC has looked inward, with some assessing the electoral setback as directly linked to internal factionalism and the perception of disunity caused by bruising internal elective battles.
Yet while internal fracturing has its implications, it is clear that poor governance and a lack of accountability are at the heart of the rupture between the party and its core support base. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s mooted national dialogue may therefore be useful if it provides the reality check the ANC so desperately needs to halt its navel-gazing.
A long-shot is that it results in the party waking up to the reality that it is failing in its core responsibility: governing in a way that puts citizens — and not itself — first.
• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large.
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