For a nation that thrives on dialogue, South Africans’ inability to translate conversations into tangible action plans is matched only by the habit of talking past each other.
Over the past few days Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie has suggested that the unemployment rate in SA is perhaps not as steep as the reported 32.9%. According to his assessment, the limitation inherent in the traditional data collection and reporting process has boosted the unemployment number, with those who are differently engaged in the economy essentially condemned to the unemployment bucket simply because we are unable to cogently characterise their status.
Capitec’s insights are informed by the front-line access it has to transactional and financial flows data it collects as part of its daily operations. As the bank that is the youngest and perhaps most successful single new large enterprise since 1994, its insights are not to be ignored. However, the utility of the insights is where the focus should be.
In the traditional statistical approach adopted by Stats SA, the national working-age population of 41.7-million is stratified among those in the labour force (25-million) and those who are not economically active (16.7-million). Within the labour force of 25-million, just 16.8-million are classified as employed and 8.2-million are classified as unemployed. It is the latter that gives us the 32.9% that has created such a headache for everyone.
Disturbingly, this data also means that out of the working-age population of 41.7-million just 16.8-million people, or 40%, are classified as employed. The discrepancies between the various percentages are due to practices of calculation recommended by the International Labour Organisation. Either way, SA clearly has a problem.
While it is true that the Stats SA data does not capture the whole spectrum of economic activity and participation, it is important to note that its purpose is to assess the employment capacity of the economy in relation to the population. The ability of some to participate in alternative economic pathways is to be welcomed, but does not substitute for the need to fundamentally address the formal employment crisis.
As we saw during the Covid-19 pandemic, those with a tentative foothold in the economy remain vulnerable to shocks that make long-term financial planning extremely challenging. Over the course of 2025 alone about 480 businesses are reported to have filed for liquidation, illustrating the fragility of the economy.
Another feature of the SA labour market is the high bargaining power some incumbents enjoy once they have cracked the access code. The prevalence of unions — even in their declining state — and strong labour protection rights mean the ability to negotiate a suite of benefits that go beyond wages is stronger for those within the employment net.
The relevance of these additional benefits associated with employment is that they are used in SA to unlock additional economic access opportunities and even post-retirement financial security.
When they apply traditional models to lending and financing decisions, institutions such as Capitec aren’t always able to use these forms of nonformal employment as enablers of economic participation. While Capitec may be ahead of the curve compared to others in seeking to address this participation deficit, the millions of citizens whose economic participation remains peripheral would benefit from expanded options on the job market as a starting point for addressing their own microeconomic inclusion.
Until then, the question of whether we are at 10% or 33% or 60% unemployment means little for those crying out for just one chance to participate in the economy by having a job.
• Sithole (@coruscakhaya) is an accountant, academic and activist.
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