Jacob Zuma has mastered the art of using fake intelligence reports against his enemies — it’s a congress movement tactic harking back to his time in exile.
His former secretary-general Floyd Shivambu says Zuma relied on a fake intelligence report and “superstition” (that Shivambu was seeking to overthrow Zuma) to axe him from his post in the MK party.
During his presidency Zuma used fake intelligence reports to devastating effect — “Project Spiderweb” was an attempt to justify his attack on the National Treasury and remove former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene. Fake intelligence was also used to justify his axing of the late Pravin Gordhan from the ANC top six. The “Ground Cover” report was aimed at neutralising his opponents in the run-up to the ANC’s 2012 national conference.
Shivambu is likely to be expelled from MK and is seeking to launch yet another political party through “consultations”. Again, nothing new here. Shivambu was implicated, with EFF leader Julius Malema, in the looting of VBS Mutual Bank by its dodgy former chair, Tshifhiwa Matodzi. The decision to form another party has almost certainly already been taken — the “consultations” will be useful in raising funds and building support.
The problem is the glut of rising populist, nationalist parties in SA, with leaders of scant credibility on the Left or Right of the political spectrum. It is dangerous because we have firmly entered coalition terrain, and the possibility of these parties entering national, provincial and local government is high.
That is already a factor in metros countrywide — the EFF holds an inordinate amount of power and influence in Gauteng metros. In Ekurhuleni it doesn’t have a single ward councillor, yet it holds four MMC posts in the executive running the metro. The same applies in Tshwane.
As the country heads to a local government elections next year or early in 2027 it should brace for the possibility that the likes of MK, and potentially Shivambu’s new outfit, will seek to follow the same playbook.
The ANC, the DA and the broader government of national unity (GNU) cover the centre for now, but there remains a dire need for a credible, ethical and lasting centrist party in SA politics.
The GNU is likely to be a temporary arrangement, with questions remaining on whether it will survive the local elections. If the state of play in the ANC holds, it is certainly not likely to last beyond the party’s 2027 national conference, when President Cyril Ramaphosa is due to be replaced, probably by his deputy, Paul Mashatile.
Ramaphosa is doing little to turn the ANC’s electoral fortunes around — his national dialogue is simply his latest attempt to kick the can down the road. He has entered the phase of his presidency where he is largely absent, barring international visits and brief periods of domestic visibility.
Since 2019 Ramaphosa has had two economic advisory councils, both packed with some of SA’s brightest and respected thinkers. Yet he has been unable to move the needle on economic growth or unemployment. That is creating ideal conditions for parties such as MK, or Shivambu’s pending outfit, to thrive.
Without economic growth, reform, better service delivery and the right leaders presiding over crucial state institutions, SA is headed towards further stasis and decay — particularly if parties outside the ANC and individuals in it who see politics and the state as a vehicle for enrichment ascend to dominate once more.
Their antics may be comic, but the inherent danger to democracy posed by parties such as MK, especially given its prominent role as the third-largest party in SA, should not be underestimated.
Watching the Zuma-Shivambu drama play out is a reminder of the past, but also a portent of the future.
• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large.
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