No rational person committed to humanity’s peace and prosperity can celebrate the wanton destruction of entire cities, or the senseless and merciless mowing down of an entire population whose members are already emaciated due to the hunger and starvation imposed on them.
In moments like this it is useful to consider the perspectives of different geopolitical scenarios. Generally, they can be consolidated into five themes: great power competition (with US-China rivalry as the central axis), climate change and environmental pressures, technological disruption (particularly artificial intelligence, automation, cyber capabilities), demographic shifts (including the contradictory trends of ageing populations in developed countries and youth bulges elsewhere), and economic transformation and potential deglobalisation.
Several scenarios point to the west Asia region as the most vulnerable to climate change effects, with water scarcity driving internal conflicts and migration, with extreme heat making parts of the region potentially uninhabitable and climate migration, thus destabilising neighbouring regions.
Last year’s Shell energy scenarios provide some useful directions in which matters will unfold in terms of economies and energy issues, and they have particular relevance to west Asia. In its Surge scenario they speculate how higher energy demand from AI could benefit Gulf oil producers in the short term; the Archipelagos scenario suggests trade fragmentation could force regional energy partnerships; and the Horizon scenario sees rapid green transition threatening oil-dependent economies.
In the Trust Fails scenario produced by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic & International Studies, social media manipulation exacerbates sectarian tensions, deepfakes are used to inflame religious and ethnic conflicts, and cybersecurity becomes critical for energy infrastructure protection.
As much as progressives might wish for more peaceful multilateral approaches to the world’s problems, west Asia remains the battleground where major powers and their proxies continue fighting, or in China’s case seek economic influence.
This forces individual states in the region to align with one of the major powers or hedge their bets with more alliances. Hence the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Iran have all joined Brics, even though the UAE and Egypt are close to Israel and the US, and Iran is close to Russia.
Ideally, west Asian states should prioritise their interests and that of their citizens, and build appropriate alliances. This is especially important in a context where European powers are divided over, and distracted by, their stances on the Ukraine-Russian war. Furthermore, long military forays do not appeal to the isolationist instinct of the conservative Republican base in the US.
Even Israel, which has received uncritical support from successive US administrations, and has therefore been unprecedentedly brazen in its aggression and violations of international law, could do well to pursue peace in its neighbourhood instead of trying to empty it.
President Donald Trump may well be playing a long game, which entails bringing Israel to heel to reduce or end distracting conflicts. What he cannot achieve through Kyiv he will hope to achieve through Tel Aviv.
In these broad global scenarios, what are the emerging scenarios for the recent conflict between Israel and Iran? Matters could spiral into a regional war, drawing in regional and global powers. This could lead to hyperinflationary pressures globally as energy costs skyrocket and supply chains completely break down. There is a possibility that there could be a return to the status quo ante, with war through subterfuge or proxies.
The ceasefire has ended direct confrontation and resulted in the return of oil prices to pre-war levels. Internally, supporters and opponents of both governments united around the defence of their nations. Iranians will continue using civil action to push for the democratic reforms they have been long struggling for, and Israelis are refocusing on the genocide in Gaza and the return of Israeli captives.
The pursuit of peace in the west Asia region and the rest of the world should be the concern of all of us, not just those who have a Trump-like ambition to become Nobel peace prize laureates.
• Abba Omar is director of operations at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.
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