The SACP’s inaugural electoral contest against its ally, the ANC, has fallen flat, with a by-election result of just 1% in a Polokwane ward this week.
A single by-election is hardly enough to extrapolate a trend, but any political outfit making its electoral debut would likely be disappointed with just 70 votes in its opening gambit, especially ahead of a crucial election in about 18 months’ time.
The SACP has been gearing up to contest “wall-to-wall” in wards across the country in the upcoming local polls. Its selection of a ward previously held by the EFF to open its electoral foray was an interesting one, aimed at testing its might against both the EFF and the ANC.
The SACP had preferred a tie-up with the EFF instead of the government of national unity including the DA in the aftermath of the 2024 general election. Election analyst Wayne Sussman said in the end the SACP was hardly a factor in the ward, but agreed that the choice to contest this particular ward, at this particular time, was consequential.
“Where you contest your first by-election matters. Typically parties prefer to debut in national elections rather than local government elections, but what MK did last year was flip that script and start contesting by-elections before the major election. We could see (in the by-elections) that in Zululand and the northern parts of KwaZulu-Natal they were going to do something big.”
Former president Jacob Zuma’s party outperformed expectations in the 2024 national election, getting 45% of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal and 14% nationally, after strong debut performances in by-elections ahead of the general election. MK finished third in its first by-election in February 2024, with 19% of the vote and then 28% in its second by-election that same month, both fought in KwaZulu-Natal.
“For the SACP, when you are re-entering the fray after your announcement that you are going to go it alone, this was really not a smart decision, in my opinion,” Sussman said. The SACP had contested by-elections in the Free State in 2017 as a test case for running on its own steam in future elections. Back then, it failed to win a ward and obtained about 6% of the vote.
Test of strength
The point in contesting by-elections ahead of the main event is a test of strength and potentially a show of force. This is why the SACP’s ward choice and timing mattered — the by-election was meant to precede a crucial meeting of the ANC’s top brass, the national executive committee. However, the meeting was postponed.
While talks between the ANC and SACP over its decision to contest the 2026/27 election are continuing, senior ANC leaders believe there is no turning back. ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula declared that the “horse has bolted”. However, some senior ANC leaders fear the move by the SACP has the potential to diminish the party’s national support to less than 30% next year. Its tally in the 2021 local election was 45.5%.
The SACP is arguing for a “reconfigured alliance”, which some in the ANC have taken to mean a coalition arrangement instead of the historical alliance between the two parties. This would give the SACP more leverage when negotiating for government posts. However, this week’s by-election result shows it has a long way to go to realise this goal.
The by-election result underscores the existential risk the SACP is taking in contesting against the ANC, which in effect means an end to the tripartite alliance that has dominated SA politics for the past three decades.
Without a strong electoral performance in 2026/27 the SACP will be relegated to a status similar to that of the Pan Africanist Congress or Azapo, which sit with 0.23% and 0.22% support, respectively, and negligible political influence.
• Marrian is Business Day editor at large.
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