The ANC’s continued neglect of the crisis in its Gauteng provincial structures will prove detrimental to its future electoral prospects.
Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal are the two largest provinces, with the highest and second-highest number of registered voters, respectively. They are also by far the largest contributors to the country’s GDP, along with the Western Cape.
Gauteng is the single largest contributor to GDP and, as the most demographically representative province, holds immense potential — its historical ability to attract investment was the lifeblood of the SA economy. However, the dire neglect of its infrastructure by successive ANC and coalition governments across the province’s large metros has led to a near collapse of crucial services in its economic hubs.
Resident and business associations are taking over the job of municipalities in large swathes of the Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane metros, despite residents and businesses paying the councils for these services.
Unsurprisingly, ANC support in Gauteng has been declining steadily, dropping to 35% in last year’s election. While the ANC lost the Western Cape as far back as 2009, it is seeking to revitalise its structures there and its national leadership appears to be glossing over the crisis it faces in Gauteng.
Private security has taken over the role of police services in areas where residents can afford it. Corruption scandals emanating out of Gauteng have taken a dangerous turn, with the assassination of whistle-blowers and officials who ask difficult questions on a deadly rise. The ANC Gauteng leadership, once among the top minds in the country, are weak and ineffectual, hamstrung by factional politics tied to government contracts and a dire lack of vision for the province.
The best premier Panyaza Lesufi could come up since taking over in 2019 is the unoriginal Nasi iSpani jobs programme, which in effect plagiarised and repackaged former premier David Makhura’s Tshepo 1-million programme, to facilitate job placements for the youth of the province and address unemployment.
In recent months there has been a flurry of activity in the province, from the shifting of officials who “failed” lifestyle audits on the government front, to the disbanding of all regional structures across the province, barring the West Rand and Ekurhuleni on the party side.
A month ago Lesufi revealed that 37% of the individuals who had been audited had “failed” — more than a third of Gauteng government officials were living beyond their means. Yet these are isolated and scattered initiatives that do not deal with the dire state of the party in the province and the provincial and local tiers of government, where the party remains in charge.
It also does not deal with the biggest weakness for the ANC in Gauteng — the party no longer attracts the best society has to offer, from ordinary members to top leaders. It has long alienated these groups and is now populated by the dregs of the political class, who view politics as the quickest route to largesse. This group will be easily swayed by the next such vehicle as soon as the ANC ceases to be one — which explains former president Jacob Zuma’s MK party’s rise in parts of Gauteng.
MK performed well in by-elections in Sedibeng this week — areas with mostly Sesotho-speaking residents, taking the party beyond its known Zulu base. The ANC’s internal fights are the main contributor to MK’s growth outside its base, particularly in Gauteng and especially as the ability of the ANC in the province to share the spoils of governance diminishes and its electoral prospects dwindle.
ANC structures accustomed to generosity from the state are in effect jumping ship to more viable vehicles, and Zuma’s MK represents such a vehicle. As a result, the ANC in Gauteng is dying — residents and, crucially, business and investors, now need to grapple with what will replace it.
• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large.
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