The clock is ticking. In a matter of hours the US will unleash a wave of tariffs on imports that could devastate SA’s already-fragile economy.
Yet instead of a wartime mobilisation strategy we get bureaucratic tinkering, a “Transformation Fund” that reads more like a theoretical exercise than an economic lifeline.
This isn’t just negligence; it’s a dereliction of duty when 28-million social grants and millions of jobs hang in the balance.
Yet India managed to see the storm coming. When US President Donald Trump first unleashed his Maga trade war Prime Minister Narendra Modi didn’t wring his hands; he accelerated India’s tech and manufacturing push, turning the country into the world’s second-largest smartphone exporter in just five years.
SA, with its deep industrial base, skilled workforce and access to African markets, could do the same if only our leaders stopped dithering and started acting.
India’s transformation wasn’t by luck; it was well planned by Modi and his team. While SA debates various half-baked industrial policies, Modi’s government executed a five-pillar plan with brutal efficiency.
First, production-linked incentives turbocharged manufacturing. Apple, Samsung and Foxconn didn’t set up factories in Tamil Nadu out of charity, they went because India paid them to produce more.
Tamil Nadu is one of India’s most economically advanced states, often called the “Detroit of Asia” for its huge vehicle industry and the “Silicon Valley of the East” for its booming tech sector.
SA’s vehicle sector could benefit from the same approach, but only if incentives are tied to real output, not vague promises.
Second, “ease of doing business” wasn’t just a slogan; it was a blood sport. India slashed red tape, digitised customs operations and turned its ports into some of the most efficient in the world.
Meanwhile, SA businesses still drown in paperwork, crime and crumbling logistics. SA must fix this or forget foreign investment.
Third, digital infrastructure and skills were treated as national security priorities. India has connected 600,000 villages to broadband, while SA’s 10-party government of national unity (GNU) appears not to care about the connectivity of rural and township people.
We have world-class universities, yet our tech graduates flee to Europe or Dubai. Why? Because we don’t value them here.
Fourth, geopolitical agility made India the West’s preferred alternative to China. SA, with its Brics ties and leading role in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which encompasses 54 of the continent’s 55 countries, could do the same if it stopped alienating Western investors with an incoherent foreign policy.
Finally, public-private collaboration was non-negotiable. Indian states competed to attract factories; SA bureaucrats fought over spoils from dodgy tenders. The difference? One nation grows at 7%, the other limps along below 1%.
The GNU must choose — does it want to be India or a failed state? A tech-driven industrial revival or a cautionary tale of decline?
The steps SA could take include:
- Launch an SA production-linked incentive scheme to subsidise real production, not paperwork;
- Build tech-ready special economic zones with reliable power, tax breaks and fast-tracked permits;
- Repair Western trade ties, stop moralising and start deal-making;
- Reskill for the digital age to fund science, technology, engineering & mathematics (Stem), not stagnation; and
- Unleash private sector dynamism — the government cannot “create” jobs, it can only enable them.
India’s success proves that even a fledgling democracy can industrialise at breakneck speed if leaders prioritise growth over ideology.
SA’s window is closing. The tariffs are coming. The local jobs crisis could worsen dramatically if US import tariff hikes become a trade barrier.
The question isn’t whether we can act, it’s whether our leaders will. In Modi's words: “Reform, perform or perish.” SA is fast running out of time to act.
• Lourie is founder and editor of TechFinancials.
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