The decision by the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) to delay its war games with Russia and China may have averted embarrassment during November’s G20 summit, but it is unlikely to ease discomfort over SA’s stance in today’s fracturing global geopolitics.
Shooting oneself in the foot has supplanted conflict-resolution-consensus-negotiation as SA’s superpower. Having an international affairs minister publicly relegated to presidential assistant doesn’t help.
The announcement of Mosi III’s postponement — “in view of activities related to SA’s G20 presidency” — came in the week SANDF chief Rudzani Maphwanya met President Cyril Ramaphosa. City Press reported that the general was absolved for his foray into foreign policy in Iran. Perhaps delaying Mosi III was the trade-off in the tête-à-tête between defence chief and commander-in-chief.
The lack of accountability is a worry, including why the SANDF used Brics as a cover for the military exercise when Brics is a politico-economic and trade group, as Monday’s extraordinary leadership summit on tariffs reiterated. Brics membership did not get SA an invitation to China’s 2025 military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War 2, unlike in 2015. Instead Zimbabwe and the Republic of Congo were invited.
But having the G20 in Africa for the first time is a breakthrough. Its motto “Solidarity. Equality. Sustainability” talks to the global insecurities and changing dynamics, even if SA’s role as host seems by the by.
When SA gets attention on the global stage it is frequently for the wrong reasons. The 2023 Mosi II military exercises coincided with the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and raised questions over SA’s support for Moscow. So did the Lady R debacle, when a Russian vessel offloaded cargo at Simon’s Town naval port. Ditto the SANDF chief’s ill-timed Iran comments.
On the non-military front, Ramaphosa’s positivity on Zimbabwean land policies, shaped by thuggish war vets, landed amid US and others’ misinterpretation of SA’s expropriation legislation. That law sets out limited circumstances where no compensation may be possible, with guaranteed recourse to courts.
Domestic failures also get damaging global attention. Two years after the Usindiso building fire, which killed 77 people, survivors still live in bullet-riddled shacks as the official report remains unpublished, though some findings are now public. That Operation Dudula continues to block patients by unlawfully checking IDs is seen across Africa and beyond as xenophobia — and the government’s failure to end this as tacit approval.
Amid this global reputation and policy muddle, the presidency insists international relations minister Ronald Lamola just assists the president with foreign policy. It’s counterintuitive at best, idiotic at worst. Lamola, regardless of his sharp political and diplomatic nous and hard work, has been reduced to a lame duck.
SA missed the opportunity to welcome — in line with its genocide case at the International Court of Justice — France and the UK pledging to fully recognise Palestine amid the unfolding, publicly documented starvation in Gaza. Australia and Canada are set to do the same as the upcoming UN General Assembly discusses the two-state solution.
These announcements are major geopolitical shifts towards SA’s stance, as is Germany’s ban on selling weapons to Israel for use in Gaza. On Monday Spain announced, in addition to its weapons embargo, a ban on transporting weapons to Israel through its airspace and harbours.
These are fleeting moments SA’s foreign policy should have leveraged. The EU, SA’s largest trading partner, is preoccupied with debt and the war on its doorstep, now in its fourth year, as Russia escalates drone bombings of Ukraine.
Shooting oneself in the foot may be SA’s new superpower, but it is a poor foreign policy.
• Merten is a veteran political journalist specialising in parliament and governance.
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