Last Friday Germany commemorated its 1990 unification, as the far right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) solidified its dominance in the five former East German länder, where public disillusionment runs like a new dividing line.
In the UK political parties are vying to out-popularise the right wing Reform UK on immigration, with the governing Labour Party hardening migration controls, while on Sunday the Tory conference promised US-style deportation squads.
In France on Monday the revolving door of prime ministers saw the resignation of the latest incumbent after only 26 days as needed deficit-reducing budget cuts are opposed, for different reasons, in parliament and on the streets.
In the US the federal government shutdown headed into the second week yesterday as Republicans and Democrats remained entrenched in their respective corners amid hardening attitudes that undermine long-standing traditions of negotiated compromise for the public good.
This is the fractured global geopolitics SA must navigate as Group of Twenty (G20) chair but also in its efforts to secure trade deals, tourism and broader support for initiatives to reduce unemployment and boost growth.
No-one but the most autocratic ruler would disagree with SA’s G20 motto: “Solidarity, equality & sustainability” — or SA’s foreign policy values of inclusiveness, human rights and dignity. But words are just that — words.
Reputation under siege
SA struggles to overcome the reputational damage inflicted by chronic crime and insecurity, embedded corruption and government incapacity, malicious compliance and inability.
This reality makes it difficult to understand SA’s sense of exceptionalism. Though Africa’s most industrialised country, various indices now show Kenya, Botswana and Ghana beating SA on competitiveness and the country remains outside the African top 10 ranked by GDP growth.
Instead of employing its world-recognised soft power, including one-on-one backroom chats and negotiation, which proved effective from the 1994 democratic transition to the 2024 national unity government — SA has doubled down on hollow, hyperbureaucratic protocol.
It’s the stuff where the size of the chair shows the person’s eminence, with bigger upholstery underscoring greater status. Form over function, if you will, such as President Cyril Ramaphosa’s publicly expressed worry of handing over the G20 chairpersonship in November not to the US president but to an empty chair.
Protocol hampers economic leverage
Why SA is stuck on such fossilised officious protocol is a matter for speculation. Perhaps it’s a form of control as functions such as water, roads, mineral beneficiation, trade deals and more unravel.
That the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa), which has long provided tariff-free market access, expired is due to the US shutdown. On this SA is off the hook, but not for failing to reach a deal to reverse or lower the 30% Trump tariffs, having failed to avert them in the first place.
It’s not just tariffs. The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) against carbon-heavy industrial production is set to move up a gear from January, when free allowances and emissions trading end. Given the centrality of coal-fired power in SA, the effect of this is set to damage local revenue and jobs.
To date, trade, industry & competition minister Parks Tau — like his predecessor Ebrahim Patel — has argued against the policy itself. In his July budget vote speech Tau told MPs SA insisted the UN and World Trade Organisation (WTO) take control of the multilateral trade system “until all member states are able to reach their developmental goals”.
Tau said that would be his message for the WTO ministerial conference scheduled for March 2026 — three months into the updated CBAM regimen.
That’s just not good enough. Unless Pretoria ditches the theatre of protocol in favour of more focus, responsiveness and an astute combination of soft power and hard work, SA will become that empty chair.
• Merten is a veteran political journalist specialising in parliament and governance.
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