The ANC is battling to rebound electorally since the 2024 general election. SA’s political fragmentation has quickened in the aftermath of the historic poll, which ushered in the country’s first national coalition government.
By-election trends from 2021 onwards indicate that support for the ANC was steady in the aftermath of the local election in November that year, but its decline has picked up pace since the 2024 national election — its losses are larger and include historical strongholds.
By-elections are a useful tool to examine shifts in voting patterns — they point to broad trends and direction of travel, but it is important to note that smaller parties can outperform their innate capacity as they are able to direct limited resources at a single or limited number of wards. This is more difficult in a full-blown local election, when scarce human and financial resources have to be spread across the country.
Soweto is a historic ANC stronghold — party insiders first saw trouble coming in the Gauteng province in the aftermath of the 2014 election, when its support dropped from 64% in 2009 to 54% in 2014. Its provincial support mirrored its decline in Soweto, where it declined percentage-wise from the mid-80s in 2009 to the mid-70s in 2014. It has been on a downward trajectory since.
This week, the ANC lost a ward in Soweto to the Patriotic Alliance (PA), which has been particularly aggressive at taking on both the ANC and the DA in their strongholds.
The PA’s bold strategy has paid off, as it has been growing its share of support at the expense of both the larger parties. And ActionSA also won a ward off the ANC in the North West due to its tie-up with splinter party Forum for Service Delivery.
The ANC’s support in this round of by-elections, despite its brave face in a media statement issued on Thursday, should be cause for deep concern. It shed 11 percentage points in a ward in Musina, Limpopo, and nine percentage points in a ward in the Eastern Cape — its two strongest-performing provinces in the 2024 election.
The ANC’s support in this round of by-elections, despite its brave face in a media statement issued on Thursday, should be cause for deep concern.
The DA’s support since 2024 has been a mixed bag, with some gains but largely flat, under threat from smaller parties such as the PA in rural areas of the Western Cape.
The EFF’s performance has been steady, despite its internal turmoil with the departure of its deputy president and a founding leader, Floyd Shivambu, and a fracture in its support due to the rise of former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe Party.
The EFF has been quietly maintaining its wards and even winning over some new wards from the ANC. The full effect of Shivambu’s departure has yet to emerge. He has formed a new political party, the Africa Mayibuye Movement, which will contest the upcoming local elections.
What by-elections reveal about Zuma’s party is that it is making inroads outside KwaZulu-Natal, its clear base, given the outcome of the election last year where it received 45% of the vote.
Competition between opposition parties is increasing, particularly between the PA, ActionSA and the EFF in Gauteng. The coalition in the City of Johannesburg, which includes the EFF and the PA, was on the brink of collapse this month after ANC mayor Dada Morero sought to hand the transport portfolio held by the PA to the EFF.
This was after the PA suspended its deputy president, transport MMC Kenny Kunene, after he was found at the home of murder accused Katiso Molefe during his arrest. However, after the PA threatened to leave the GNU, Morero was forced to reappoint Kunene after he was cleared of wrongdoing by a PA-initiated probe.
The ANC appears to be in limbo internally, unable to enact reforms significant enough to shift voter sentiment back in its favour. A failure to act now could leave it particularly vulnerable in the 2026 local election due to two factors.
Its ally, the SA Communist Party, is set to contest the polls, posing a risk of further fracture. Its participation as a separate party on the ballot would effectively mean another split.
With inquiries under way unearthing the rot in the police and the criminal justice system, having ANC leaders at the centre of damning allegations — taking place in full public view — the party’s recovery prospects appear bleak just over a year from what is set to be another historic election.
• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large
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