If there were any remaining doubters, then the 2021 report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) should have dispelled them.
The evidence is incontrovertible that human activity has warmed the planet and caused widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, the ocean, the biosphere and on land. These changes are unprecedented over many centuries and over thousands of years. It has also been established with a high degree of certainty that some of that damage is irreversible.
The IPCC report is compiled by and agreed by scientists from 195 countries that are members of the UN. Because it is a consensus document, it is in no way an alarmist or propaganda-style report. It is though, extremely alarming.
Human-induced climate change is already causing weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. These events are becoming more frequent with heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts and tropical cyclones becoming more pronounced.
Africa, there is consensus, has already been more severely affected by climate change than other regions, a trend that is expected to continue. In SA, in the eastern and western parts of the country there has been lower mean rainfall, more flooding, more drought, increases in fire weather conditions and more wind. On the eastern side there has been increased wind speeds during tropical cyclones, says the report, while the western side is seeing an increase in dryness.
The report reaffirms “with high confidence” earlier arguments that there is a near-linear relationship between CO₂ emissions and the global warming they cause. Limiting global warming is about reducing CO₂ emissions, and neutralising those that must remain, to meet a target of net zero. It is believed, in the scientific community, that net zero will keep global temperature rises within 1.5°C to 2°C.
SA — the world’s 12th largest emitter and with the largest single emissions point on the planet (Sasol) — must take on its “fair share” of emissions reduction. This means that by global standards, our targets must be a fair contribution to the global effort.
The country is involved right now in setting nationally determined goals. A draft produced by the department of environment, forestry & fishing was sadly lacking in ambition and has been given a bit of a boost by the presidential climate commission, which in its report to the president has recommended a slightly faster decarbonisation.
This would entail retiring Eskom’s old coal plants earlier than scheduled. It is also dependent on large industrial emitters engaging in mitigation efforts, changes in agricultural and land-use policies, as well as support from the global finance community.
Under the presidential climate commission recommendations SA just squeaks in with a “fair share” rating from Climate Tracker, a global NGO that tracks progress towards globally agreed goals (containing global warming at 1.5°C rather than the more ambitious 2°C).
In a statement on Wednesday, business suggested that SA can fully decarbonise its energy system by 2050 — at a hefty price of at least R3-trillion in investment — as it advocated for a higher level of ambition than that contained in the country’s NDC, or the nationally determined contribution.
In its submission of the NDCs, Business Unity SA (Busa) was less ambitious than the commission and did not revise the uppermost limit downwards.
SA may have just made the fair share rating, but given the scale of the climate change disaster, activists are correct in saying that it can do much more.
Banks, financiers and asset managers are all under pressure from shareholders to stop the financing of fossil fuels. Companies that export — including mines and agriculture — could soon face carbon border adjustment mechanisms from the EU. Companies based in SA face sanctions from their parent companies abroad if they do not go green fast enough.
The government and business might get away with doing the minimum when they go to COP26 in Glasgow in November, but it will not be for long.
Our companies and our products will not be able to avoid it.
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