SA is set for more unstable and volatile local governments if the election results usher in more coalitions, as appears likely.
The track record of coalitions at local government level over the past five years has not been covered in glory. One just needs to think of the tumult in Nelson Mandela Bay, Johannesburg and Tshwane to see what could be in store.
With each coalition partner hell-bent on achieving their own political ambitions, whether this be gaining lucrative positions for their members or implementation of their political programmes, these forms of government are vulnerable to falling apart.
This happens when there is a reluctance to compromise and where there is a possibility of forming another governing coalition with other parties. All this makes for intrinsic instability and detracts from a focus on service delivery and the pursuit of a long-term strategy. Residents suffer.
Even more unstable is a minority coalition government as this can easily be disrupted by opposition parties.
The likelihood of coalition governments stems not only from the fact that the DA and the ANC are bleeding votes, but also from the nibbling away of voter support by smaller parties which could play kingmaker in many municipalities, even though they only capture a small percentage of the vote. This is particularly the case in the rural areas of the Western Cape, where small local parties and independent candidates have flourished, as well as in Gauteng.
One only has to recall the chaos in Johannesburg — SA’s economic powerhouse — Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay to understand the negative consequences of coalition governments.
The other metro in Gauteng with a coalition government, Ekurhuleni, has been a lot more stable. It is controlled by the ANC in coalition with the African Independent Congress, Pan Africanist Congress, Patriotic Alliance and the Independent Ratepayers Association of SA. Mogale City on the West Rand, which includes Krugersdorp, is also run by a coalition government.
The 2016 local government election gave rise to a coalition in Johannesburg of the DA and numerous smaller parties which needed EFF support. This fell apart with the resignation of mayor Herman Mashaba and an ANC-controlled coalition took over.
The 2016 elections also ushered in a DA coalition in Tshwane, where there has been a succession of three different DA mayors. The turnover of mayors resulted in a political stalemate as the council was unable to elect a new one for months. Later, EFF and ANC councillors staged repeated walkouts, which meant the council could not convene, affecting the delivery of services. The ANC-controlled provincial government placed the council under administration, a decision overturned by the Constitutional Court.
Chaos has reigned in Nelson Mandela Bay, where the DA coalition with the UDM fell apart early on after fierce infighting between the coalition partners, leaving the city in a state of disrepair. Smaller parties have held the balance of power in the metro since 2016, shifting power between the DA and the ANC and then back to the DA. The DA is in coalition with the UDM, African Independent Congress, COPE and the African Christian Democratic Party.
The same instability has been apparent in coalition governments in rural areas of the Western Cape, where the ANC is hoping to gain a stronger foothold through coalitions with smaller parties.
It has not been a common practice in SA for formal coalition agreements to be thrashed out before elections as the dominant parties strive to achieve a majority, but there is a strong argument for these to be concluded in advance to provide a solid foundation for the future local government.
Roles and responsibilities are clearly set out and compromises are reached on political objectives in the form of contractual obligations. Having such formal agreements would also give voters a clear choice on what type of government they want instead of having a hotch-potch coalition foisted upon them after the elections.
Instead of this, the DA has been encouraging voters not to vote for smaller parties, saying this is a wasted vote which is not likely to endear it to its future potential coalition partners.
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