Discussions about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been punctuated by what-about-isms ranging from extremely valid to outright spurious. True, the war has led to broader debates on injustice, structural inequality and conflict including in the global south. Typically Western states fare poorly in these critiques and yet there is no denying the bigger impact.
There are South Africans who consider strife between two states in far-flung and bitter cold Eastern Europe wholly irrelevant. Ripple effects, including those on global oil prices, do not register. For some, pressing struggles on home soil warrant attention to the exclusion of worry for Ukrainians.
Besides, goes the reasoning, what does it matter if Ukrainians in scarves and fleece jackets wheeling suitcases and carrying backpacks fled houses and apartments in Kyiv by bus, foot and train? Just this week, continues this way of thinking, residents of Alexandra township in Gauteng marched against foreigners they accuse of being criminals who steal jobs. More than 10 people were injured in a gritty fight. With all the crime, graft, poverty, unemployment and government failure SA faces, what does Ukraine’s sovereignty matter?
There is no debate Western countries took remarkably swift and decisive action against Russia. Nato member states acted with remarkable unity of purpose once tanks began to roll into Ukraine. Governments took steps once flash explosions turned Kyiv’s night sky amber and Russian soldiers advanced. Over days, the penalties ramped up. Russia’s stock exchange has been closed since February 28 in an effort to stem panic selling and an economic nosedive. Last week, the EU resolved to lock Russian banks and subsidiaries out of the SWIFT messaging service for global payments.
The penalties on energy exports have begun, with European countries diverging from the US on timelines. Divergence between states sanctioning Russia is starting to show. This week, the US imposed a ban on three Russian commodities. On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden signed an executive order outlawing imports of Russian oil, liquid gas and coal. On the flip side, pariah state Venezuela is said to be in the running to close that supply gap.
This bigger-picture impact will grow more overt with time. SA’s already constrained power grid will be further affected by sanctions hitting the energy sector worldwide. Count among the consequences of the war a rise in demand and cost of coal, which at least could have been a big plus for SA, were we capable of keeping the lights on and getting trains to ports.
An escalation in this conflict will have tangible costs, reaching far and wide. Amid the duress and strife, there will be opportunities. It is this uncomfortable truth that likely informed SA’s official stance, including in how it voted at the UN last week.
Most of the UN General Assembly now “deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine” and demands it “immediately cease its use of force” and “completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces”. Not SA.
Since Russia counts among five countries with veto powers on the UN Security Council, a resolution on the war was referred to the bigger council. SA was among 34 states that abstained. Five countries voted against the resolution, and 141 backed it. The outcome is little more than an opinion poll, but it gauges global opinion and applies pressure.
SA’s move was no surprise, especially after the tepid remarks of President Cyril Ramaphosa and before him the international relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor. The government is consistently muted in its approach to international relations. And SA has a pockmarked record even reacting to bloody strife and refugee crises far closer to home, such as in Libya and Sudan.
Being in economic straits, it makes sense that being “open for business” translates into trade with as many states as possible and by association sitting on the diplomatic fence. SA has not faced any pushback insofar as trade is concerned for its latest UN vote abstention, but the war is already costing the country and it will continue to do so.
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