It is probably too soon to conclusively tell how Friday’s aborted mutiny by the Wagner mercenary forces will change the course of Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine. But it is hard to escape the conclusion that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has been exposed as not invincible after all.
On Friday, thousands of members of Wagner, a militia group led by former convict Yevgeny Prigozhin, pulled out of Ukraine, drove through the town of Rostov-on-Don, a logistics hub for the war, and started making their way towards Moscow.
Prigozhin’s main demand was the removal of Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu and some of his generals. Friday’s events were a culmination of months of anger by Prigozhin about what he has described as corruption in Moscow and the inept prosecution of the war against Ukraine by Shoigu.
Shoigu has called on Wagner members to sign contracts with Russia’s army which, in effect, would subject them to the Kremlin’s line.
The march to Moscow was aborted on Saturday after a curious deal, reportedly brokered by Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, with the Kremlin. In terms of the deal, Prigozhin will go into exile in Belarus and the charges that he and his men faced have been dropped.
This is rather lenient by Putin’s standards. Ordinarily, Prigozhin would face a long prison term or poison wherever he lands, just like Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
If the entire Wagner force withdraws from the war against Ukraine, it would significantly weaken Russia’s army and boost Kyiv’s counteroffensive, which has yet to gain traction. The West, which knew of Friday’s mutiny, could seize this retreat to step up support for Ukraine towards a decisive military victory.
In the short term, Putin has a lot to worry about. First, he needs to worry that his law enforcement agencies did not act against Wagner; second, citizens of Rostov-on-Don appeared amused and happy instead of shocked; and third and more chillingly, which side his soldiers and police would have taken had Wagner reached Moscow.
The world community also has a lot to be concerned with regard to Putin’s next moves. Without the support of Wagner, he could resort to nuclear weapons. Already his army and Wagner have been bombing civilian residences. Forced into a corner, the unthinkable could become thinkable.
In Russia, he is likely to clamp down on those opposed to his unwinnable war, including independent media and human rights activists.
The future of his war, however, largely depends on how Beijing reads Friday’s events. If Xi Jinping, China’s president, believes Putin has lost control, he could start looking at relations with Russia’s future leader instead of standing by a soon-to-be has-been.
Africa, which has played host to thousands of Wagner mercenaries, has to worry about thousands of out-of-job Wagner fighters. From Saturday’s deal, it is unclear what their future will be.
The world community, including Putin’s allies in Pretoria and other African capitals, should immediately draw the red line that he should not cross: repression of his opponents is a human rights issue, not an internal one; and, with or without Wagner’s support, it should be made clear that nuclear weapons will be a step too far.
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