It is now obvious that Paul Mashatile, the ANC’s and country’s deputy president, is on a campaign trail to replace his fatigued boss, Cyril Ramaphosa, as the head of the republic.
Unlike his predecessor, David Mabuza, Mashatile wants to make the No 2 role consequential — like Thabo Mbeki did under Nelson Mandela.
Since Ramaphosa grudgingly appointed him as his deputy in March, Mashatile has assembled a youthful, sprightly team of advisers to counsel him on various matters of state craft. This is happening as his boss, who relies on an army of advisory councils, has lost most of his advisers.
Though he has no credible national and international profile, Mashatile has been deliberate and diligent in making up for these shortfalls: he has been courting business which is falling out of love with his boss. This Thursday he will be addressing members of the American Chamber of Commerce.
His language is more forthright than his boss’s. Not only is he raising his personal and political profile, he is also easing Mrs Mashatile into the SA public sphere. This weekend he gave account of his 100 days in office.
Unsurprisingly, this campaign has annoyed his political enemies including supporters of Ramaphosa who still think their man deserves a second term despite his obvious lack of interest in the job. The anti-Mashatile campaign has been fuelled by his apparently colourful premarital private life. And last week, his bodyguards, who brutalised unarmed men in full glare of other motorists on a freeway, provided further ammunition to his opponents.
These intra-ANC theatrics would provide comic relief if the country’s economy was optimally performing. It is not.
As happened in 2007 in the run-up to the Polokwane conference of the ANC, the tensions between the two men’s camps has begun to affect the business of government. Sensing that Ramaphosa may be swept away from office by the Phala Phala scandal, ministers are beginning to hedge their bets by lining up behind a Mashatile presidency.
This would not be disastrous. But it might encourage policy adventurism and open defiance of Ramaphosa by his ministers. For example, a fortnight ago, Gwede Mantashe, the ANC’s chairperson and mineral resources & energy minister, refused to attend and sign a climate change agreement alongside Ramaphosa.
As the 2024 general elections approach, Ramaphosa’s power will further weaken. With loss of electoral support, his power of patronage has eroded, especially in the big metropolitan cities of Pretoria, Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban.
In 2007, sensing the growing paralysis in governance, Mbeki and his then deputy, Jacob Zuma, sought to distance themselves from the factions. This did not succeed.
The Mashatile-Ramaphosa feud has rapidly escalated. It is now cascading down to the ranks of a mostly politicised civil service. This is deeply concerning, and has to be addressed.
There is nothing wrong with Mashatile’s political ambition; nor is there anything untoward with the Ramaphosa camp trying to frustrate it. However, there is everything wrong in this unfolding at the expense of governance and service delivery.
Save for Mandela and Oliver Tambo, the ANC has been bad in managing leadership succession. Tambo kept the ANC alive for decades and, with minimal capacity, managed to prepare it for governance. Mandela managed a fragile transition to 1994. After FW de Klerk exited the government of national unity, Mandela effectively handed power to the then youthful Mbeki. Of all postapartheid leaders, Mbeki was by far a textbook example of a fit-for-purpose president.
Unfortunately, the Tambo-Mandela smooth leadership succession choreography has never been maintained. Since Mandela, all ANC presidencies have ended in tears. There is no suggestion that Ramaphosa’s will be any different.
This then brings us to the question of what needs to happen. South Africans deserve better. They need load-shedding to end; they need jobs; they need to live in a safe country; the vulnerable need a caring government; and, most of all, they need a growing economy. These cannot all happen when the two top leaders are at each other’s throats.
As seasoned politicians and leaders, Mashatile and Ramaphosa should provide leadership from the top. They should acknowledge the obvious: that they are now in an effective leadership contest to lead the ANC into next year’s elections. They should call on their supporters to refrain from using state resources to fight these internecine factional battles.
As our democracy matures, we should think about insulating the public service from political office-bearers’ whims. In the UK, for example, bureaucrats’ tenure is not linked to politicians.
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